Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
January 6, 2014

Tropical Cyclone 07P (Ian) is now active over the Southwest Pacific Ocean?located about 351 NM east of Suva, Fiji (Sustained winds of 35 knots?with gusts up to 45 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, forecast positions, and wind segments for Tropical Cyclone 07P (Ian)?over the Southwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07P (Ian ) is now active over the Southwest Pacific Ocean, located according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), approximately 351 NM east of Suva, Fiji. Ian has inched its way westward at only 2 mph during the past six hours.

Satellite imagery shows a compact and tightly wrapped low level circulation center. There is flaring deep convection (thunderstorms) along the northern periphery, which is obscuring the exact position of this storm.

The initial intensity is being held at 35 knots (40 mph) of sustained winds, with gusts to near 45 knots (52 mph).

Upper level analysis indicates low 5-10 knots (7-12 mph) of vertical wind shear.

TC 07P is nearly stationary and slightly erratic, as this small system is located within a weak steering environment. Global computer models suggest that this slow motion is going to persist for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the models show a slow, more poleward track throughout the remainder of its life cycle. Overall, there is a low confidence in the forecast track, based on this weak steering environment.

The JTWC forecast calls for a gradual strengthening of TC Ian through 48 hours, and then leveling off at 50 knots (58 mph) through 72 hours. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear? will begin to weaken the system.

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of TC 07P

The small island of Tonga may be impacted by this storm during the night of January 10th/morning of the 11th. The forecast wind speeds at that time are 40 knot (46 mph) sustained winds, with gusts to near 50 knots. If this landfall were to occur, heavy rains, and gusty winds, along with rough surf conditions would arrive on this small island.

A tropical cyclone alert was issued earlier, although has been cancelled more recently. The Tonga Meteorological services cancelled the alert, but said a strong wind warning remains in force for Ha’apai, Vava’u and the Niua’s. Ha’apai is about 135 kilometers north of the Tongan capital Nuku’alofa, while Vava’u is about 305 kilometers north of the capital.

Tonga has a population of around 106,000.

The 2013-2014 South Pacific cyclone season has been slow to get going. It’s the first time on record that there have been no cyclones between July and December.

In the 2012-13 season there were?6 cyclones, including Evan which killed 14 people in Samoa.

Evan was unusual for the length of time it remained active, hitting in addition to Samoa, Wallis and Futuna Islands, Fiji and Tonga…with its remnants reaching the northern part of New Zealand.

There has been an average of 27 cyclones a year between 1981 and 2012.

Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th…and has now ended.?Here?s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image