Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
July 9, 2012

Tropical cyclone Daniel (4E) is active in the northeast Pacific Ocean…located approximately 1355 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Weakening hurricane…sustained winds of 85 mph)

Tropical cyclone Emilia (5E) is active in the northeast Pacific Ocean…located approximately 710 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California (Strengthening hurricane…sustained winds of 100 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying sea water temperatures, hurricanes Daniel and Emilia with associated positions and potential tracks.

Category 1 hurricane Daniel continues moving generally west away from Mexico, towards the central Pacific. Sustained winds of 75 knots (85 mph) were occurring at the time of this writing. These winds are expected to decrease to 60 knots soon…bringing Daniel down into the tropical storm category later today.

As this tropical cyclone continues into the central Pacific, it will encounter strong high level winds, prompting shear in the upper portions of the storm. This shearing action will further reduce its strength into a tropical depression…and then a remnant low pressure system as it moves well south of Hawaii Friday into Saturday.

Meanwhile, strengthening category 2 hurricane Emilia is churning the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean at this point too. This system will become the stronger of the two by far, attaining the major hurricane status soon…which means it will reach the category 4 level. The NHC forecast shows Emilia peaking in strength within 24 hours, with sustained winds reaching 130 mph.

It’s too early to know about a threat to the Hawaiian Islands, although the fact that the NHC is downgrading Emilia to a tropical storm well before reaching the central Pacific…is a good sign. The current path could bring increased showers and winds to parts of the Hawaiian Islands next week, although again…that’s too far out into the future to know for sure.