Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
October 8, 2013

Tropical storm 23W (Danas) **is dissipating between Japan and South Korea…located about 84 NM north of Sasebo, Japan (Sustained winds of 55 knots…with gusts to near 70 knots) – *Final Warning***

Tropical storm 14E (Narda) remains active in the northeastern Pacific…located about 1185 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California (Sustained winds of 45 mph)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, forecast positions, segments, and error cone for dissipating Tropical Storm 23W (Danas)

Tropical storm 23W (Danas) is rapidly dissipating, located approximately 84 NM north of Sasebo, Japan…tracking northeastward at a fast paced 23 knots (27 mph) over the past six hours. This tropical storm has run into unfavorable environmental conditions, including cooler sea surface temperatures, and dry cool air being entrained into this system, in addition to very strong wind shear aloft. As this storm winds down quickly, it has still been able to bring gusty winds to the south coast of South Korea. Here’s a satellite image of this dissipating tropical storm

Meanwhile, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is pointing out two areas of disturbed weather, one in the in the western Pacific, and the other in the Bay of Bengal…both of which have a high chance of developing into a significant tropical cyclone over the next 24 hours.

The first, located about 280 NM south-southwest of Yangon, Myanmar, is a strong tropical disturbance, which has begun to take on a spin off the west coast of Thailand. The models show this system becoming a tropical cyclone on Wednesday, and moving across the Bay of Bengal, making a landfall in northeast India this weekend. This system may become a typhoon quickly, and bring very strong winds, heavy flooding rainfall, and dangerous storm surge onto the coast. Here’s a satellite image of this area.

The second area, located about 410 NM north-northwest of Palau, is showing an increasingly organized low level circulation center. The computer models are suggesting that this system will continue to develop, and track westward towards the Philippines. Here’s a satellite image of this area.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, NHC forecast positions, segments, error cones for tropical storm Narda in the northeast Pacific Ocean

Tropical storm Narda is weakening in the northeastern Pacific, which was unexpected by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This TS is located about 1185 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. TS Narda is now on a steady weakening trend, and is forecast to become a post-tropical/remnant low pressure system within 72 hours.

This weakening of TS Narda appears to be the result of it moving into a drier and increasingly stable environment, along with stronger westerly shear aloft. Narda will remain in the eastern Pacific throughout, and be no threat to the Hawaiian Islands in the central Pacific.

Here’s a satellite image of this TS…along with what the hurricane models are showing for Narda