Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
September 3, 2013

Tropical storm 15W (Toraji) remains active over the NW Pacific Ocean…sustained winds of 50 knots…with gusts near 65 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, JTWC forecast positions, segments, error cones for Tropical storm Toraji over the NW Pacific

Tropical storm 15W (Toraji) is active in the northwest Pacific, which it’s approaching southern Japan now. Bands of thunderstorms are wrapping into the center of TS Toraji from the north, and extending over Kyushu Island. Kyushu is the third largest island of Japan…and is the farthest southwest of Japan’s four main islands.

As of 1500 UTC Monday, TS Toraji had maximum sustained winds near 50 knots (58 mph), making it a fairly strong tropical storm…although falling short of being a stronger typhoon. It was located about 172 NM south-southwest of Sasebo, Japan. Toraji is moving towards the northeast at 9 knots (10 mph).

Wind shear aloft has increased from the southwest today…blowing up to 30 knots (35 mph).

Toraji is expected to make landfall in Kyushu, and then move back over the open waters of the Sea of Japan, where it’s forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to parallel the western coast of Japan. It will begin interacting with mid-level westerly winds, and become extra-tropical later today.

Between the increased wind shear from the southwest, and the interaction with land (Kyushu Island), Tropical Storm Toraji is not expected to intensify before making landfall.

Here’s a NOAA satellite picture of TS Toraji heading towards Japan

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing in the NE Pacific Ocean

Recent tropical cyclone Kiko has fizzled out in the northeast Pacific, and is now a post-tropical remnant low pressure system. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that Kiko’s remnants will continue to weaken offshore from Mexico today into mid-week.

As former Kiko dissipates, another area of low pressure is becoming organized in the eastern Pacific. This low was located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Mexico’s southwestern coast. It’s generating widespread showers, and has a high 80% chance of developing over the next 5-days days. The NHC is giving this tropical disturbance a medium 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next 48 hours…as it moves towards the west-northwest. Due to its close proximity to southwestern Mexico, this area may experience heavy rainfall with thundrstorms, and gusty winds over the next couple of days.

The area under investigation is shown on this satellite image…along with the minor swirl of clouds associated with former Kiko.

Eastern North Pacific

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

There are no current tropical cyclones

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF THE DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map

Eastern Pacific Satellite Image