Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
May 16, 2013

Tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen) is dissipating inland over Bangladesh…located approximately 53 NM southeast of Dhaka, Bangladesh (Sustained winds of 45 knots, with gusts to near 55 knots) – Final Warning

Tropical cyclone 01E (Alvin) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located approximately 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Sustained winds of 45 knots, with gusts to near 55 knots)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation, with JTWC positions, segments and winds, for dissipating tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen)…inland over Bangladesh

Tropical cyclone 01B (Mahasen) is dissipating over land in Bangladesh…located approximately 53 NM southeast of Dhaka, Bangladesh. This cyclone has tracked north-northeastward at a fast paced 22 knots (25 mph) over the past six hours. Satellite imagery shows that TC Mahasen has made landfall northwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh, in the delta area, and is rapidly dissipating…and becoming more and more disorganized.

Radar imagery from Kolkata, India, also shows rapid weakening, as convection has become very shallow. TC 01B is forecast to accelerate further into the mid-latitude westerly wind flow, and track across northeastern India. During this passage, this dissipating storm will encounter rough terrain, and increasingly high 30-40 knot (35-46 mph) vertical wind shear. Mahasen will dissipate below 35 knots in the next 12 hours, and as such…the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued its final warning on this system.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying NHC forecast positions, segments, and winds, for tropical cyclone 01E (Alvin)…in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

Tropical cyclone 01E (Alvin) remains active over the warm waters of the eastern Pacific, located about 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and moving generally towards the west-northwest at near 09 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph, with higher gusts to near 63 mph. This first tropical cyclone of the hurricane season, in the eastern Pacific, may strengthen a little more, although is not now expected to reach the hurricane stage.

TC Alvin’s structure became degraded overnight, and thus the NHC forecast is keeping this TS from strengthening significantly. As opposed to yesterday’s analysis, the vertical wind shear aloft, over the heart of the storm, will be a limiting factor. The current track path keeps Alvin well offshore from the Mexican coast, and dissipation is expected within 120 hours. This storm will remain in the eastern Pacific, a very long distance from the central Pacific basin…and the Hawaiian Islands.