Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna) remains active…located about 138 NM north-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Ella) remains active…located about 150 NM west-southwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, TAOS wind estimates, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, for Tropical Cyclones Donna and 19P

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna) remains at typhoon strength…although is in a weakening phase

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system – and what the computer models are showing.

Looping satellite image of this developing tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 18P

Here’s the radar image from New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Donna passed just to the west of Vanuatu this past weekend, bringing flooding rains and damaging winds. The storm is now in the process of drifting just east of New Caledonia.

The winds have eased significantly, although remains capable of causing extensive damage and widespread flooding.

At its strongest, Donna’s winds reached 133 miles an hour with gusts of up to 162 mph. That made it equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale.

This in turn made Donna the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded during the month of May…in the southern hemisphere.

Flooding will occur across New Caledonia today, although the storm will clear the area later Wednesday…with the remnants of the storm potentially bringing heavy rain to northern fringes of New Zealand by the weekend.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), TC 18P, satellite imagery shows the system is rapidly weakening.

Environmental conditions continue to deteriorate, and will weaken the system significantly over the next 2-days.

TC Donna will encounter stronger wind shear aloft, with cooler waters as it moves southeastward.

The storm will begin extra-tropical transition after 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #23 were 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots.

>>> Tropical Cyclone 19P (Ella) will remain at the tropical storm scale…as it heads towards Fiji

Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system – and what the computer models are showing.

Looping satellite image of this developing tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TC 19P (Ella)

TS Ella will remain much less strong than Donna, although Ella will deliver very heavy rains to Fiji…with the  threat of dangerous flooding.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), TC 19P, satellite imagery shows a consolidating with flaring central convection.

Environmental analysis shows marginal conditions, with warm sea surface temperatures…with low wind shear being offset by restricted outflow.

Conditions are expected to remain marginal with slight improvement over the next 48 hours…allowing the system to intensify slightly to 50 knots.

Nearly stationary movement, with increasing wind shear will lead to rapid weakening…as the storm shifts southward.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #2 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Precipitation Accumulations for 1-day

Finally, there’s an early season tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific…being referred to as Invest 90E

Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the National Hurricane Center:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of El Salvador have become better organized this morning.

If this development trend continues, advisories will be initiated later today.

This system is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest, remaining well offshore of the coasts of Central America and southeastern Mexico through at least Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2016. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of El Salvador have become better
organized this morning.  If this development trend continues,
advisories will be initiated later today.  This system is forecast
to move slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest, remaining
well offshore of the coasts of Central America and southeastern
Mexico through at least Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 18P (Donna)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 19P (Ella)

JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

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