Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
December 19, 2016

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, centered near Fiji, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (24-hours) layers

However, there’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99P…which is located approximately 35 NM north of Nadi, Fiji

Here’s a JTWC satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s the looping radar image from Fiji…along with a IR satellite image of the area

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center, with flaring convection located along the eastern periphery…although lacking well defined cloud banding.

Environmental analysis indicates marginal conditions, with moderate 25 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. However, an upper level low pressure system positioned just to the west…continues to limit development.

Global model guidance shows a southeastward track, with very little development.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium

PDC Disaster Alert, offshore waters of NW Australia, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (24-hours) layers

Meanwhile, there’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91S…which is located approximately 326 NM northwest of Port Hedland, Australia

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s the weather radar loop from Port Hedland, Australia

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a rapidly consolidating low level circulation center, with formative cloud bands wrapping into the center.

Environmental analysis are conducive for further development, with low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear values…along with warm sea surface temperatures.

Global model guidance shows a nearly stationary track over the next 2-3 days with continued development.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to high

PDC Disaster Alert, centered in the Timor Sea, displaying PDC Active Hazards and Rainfall Accumulation (3-hours) layers

Finally, there’s a third tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90S…which is located approximately 75 NM west of Darwin, Australia

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s the weather radar loop from Darwin, Australia

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery and radar imagery depict disorganized flaring convection around a very broad low level circulation center.

Surface observations from the Darwin AP indicate 3-4 millibar 24-hour pressure decrease. Meanwhile, environmental conditions are marginal due to moderate to high 25-30 knot wind shear, and weak diffluence aloft.

Global model guidance shows a southwestward track over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf, with slow development…as land interaction and wind shear decrease.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2017.

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2016 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2017.

Satellite image of this area