Tropical Cyclone 26W (Meari) is active in the western Pacific Ocean…located about 285 NM north of Yap
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone Segments and Positions, and Estimated Wind Impacts (TAOS Model) for Tropical Cyclone Meari…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing within 2-days
Tropical Storm Meari is active in the western Pacific
Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing
Meari will track northeast through the next 48 hours…at approximately 05 kts.
Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Advisory #04 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots.
There’s also an area of disturbed weather in the western north Pacific Ocean, being referred to as Invest 99W
Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing
This disturbance has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds as of the 03/0600Z JTWC Advisory were 15 to 20 knots.
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 24 hours
There’s an area of disturbed weather in the western Pacific Ocean
Here’s a satellite image
This disturbance has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing within 2-days
There’s also an area of disturbed weather in the northern Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 90B
Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing
This disturbance has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds as of the 03/1800Z JTWC Advisory were 25 to 30 knots.
Eastern North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
1) A disturbance located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity. Little to no development of this system is expected through early next week while it moves westward or west- northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
Central North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones.
Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 26W (Meari)
JTWC textual forecast
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image
1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 144.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 143.8E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030421Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL PASS DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE MIXED WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
South Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones.
1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 88.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 85.3E, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031546Z 89GHZ METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW WITH A POLEWARD TAP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND ON THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AND HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS ON ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Arabian Sea
There are no current tropical cyclones
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