Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans - Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global)

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
October 5, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 22W remains active…located about 341 NM east-southeast of Hong Kong

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 1-day precipitation accumulation, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts for Tropical Cyclone 22W

Tropical Depression 22W has now spun up in the Philippine Sea…passing between Luzon Island, Philippines and Taiwan

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version …along with what the computer models are showing.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images depicts a consolidating system with formative cloud banding and flaring central convection.

Upper level analysis shows modest outflow and marginal wind shear values of 15-20 knots. Sea surface temperatures are very warm.

TY Chaba will continue to track westward for the next 24-36 hours. By 36 hours TD 22W will enter a weak steering environment, which will introduce a southerly component to the track after 48 hours. Environmental conditions will remain marginal, limiting development to a weak tropical storm by 36 hours.

In the extended period, environmental conditions are expected to improve slightly, enough to support limited intensification

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #2 were 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing within 24 hours

There’s an area of convection circled in orange above, is being referred to as Invest 94C… located approximately 476 NM east-southeast of Wake Island in the western Pacific

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what a computer model is showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a slowly improving low level circulation center, with flaring deep convection near the center.

Upper level analysis indicates a marginal environment, with moderate to strong 20-25 knot wind shear.

Global models are mixed, with some showing weak development over the next 24-36 hours, as the disturbance tracks north-northwest, although the window for development is very short.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 15-20 knots.

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing within 2-days

Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance in the Eastern Pacific…which is expected to move westward

A trough of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves generally westward near 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.) A trough of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves generally westward near 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Satellite image of this area