Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
August 22, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 10W (Mindulle) is active in the NW Pacific Ocean…located about 152 NM south of Misawa, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Lionrock) is active in the NW Pacific Ocean…located about 344 NM east-northeast of Kadena AFB, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 12E (Kay) is active in the NE Pacific Ocean…located about 465 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Cyclones 10W and 12W…and a tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing

Tracks for 10W and 12W over and near Japan

Tropical Cyclone 10W (Mindulle) remains active, moving over the Japanese Islands…on a gradual weakening trend

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows convection continued to unravel and diminish as the system moved along the east coast of Honshu, Japan.

Upper level analysis indicates TS 10W is now embedded in the strong mid-latitude poleward air flow.

TS 10W has begun extra-tropical transition, and will continue to accelerate north-northeastward.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #20 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots

>>> Tropical Cyclone 12W (Lionrock) remains active over the western Pacific…over the ocean south of Japan

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery reveals a symmetric cloud shield with flaring shallow convection, obscuring the low level circulation.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is in an area of low 5-10 knot wind shear, but with very minimal outflow…and is quasi-stationary.

TS 12W is expected to remain nearly stationary for the next 36-48 hours. Generally favorable upper level conditions in addition to warm sea surface temperatures, will gradually intensify the system…reaching 60 knots within 72 hours.

In the extended period, TS Lionrock will slowly curve northeastward, with favorable environmental conditions , fueling additional strengthening. The system will reach typhoon intensity by 96 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #19 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather in the western Pacific (circled in yellow in the PDC Atlas above)…which has a low chance of developing

This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 90W…here’s a satellite image of this general area…and what the model guidance shows

This area is located approximately 380 NM southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) satellite imagery depicts pulsating shallow convection, slightly west of the low level circulation center…with a broad, yet symmetric circulation.

Upper level environmental analysis reveals a wind shear of 5-10 knots, although directly…increases to a strong 20-25 knots. Sea surface temperatures are warm under this disturbance.

Maximum sustained winds in this area are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential for development within the next 24 hours is low

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments…Tropical Cyclone Kat, and two tropical disturbances with a medium chance of developing

Tropical Storm 12E (Kay) remains active over the open ocean…and will soon retire

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s the near real time wind profile of this tropical cyclone

Tropical Storm Kay is located about 465 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California…and is moving toward the west at near 7 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), microwave data and first-light visible imagery indicate that the convection associated with Kay has become less organized, with the low-level center now lying near the southeast edge of the convective area.

The microwave data show that Kay turned westward during the night with the initial motion now 280 degrees at 6 knots. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward until dissipation.

The new forecast track is shifted somewhat to the south of the previous track due to the current position and motion. Kay will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, which should cause a continued gradual weakening. The new intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to become a depression in 24 hours or less, and for it to subsequently decay to a remnant low by 36 hours.

>>> There’s a tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific…with a low chance of developing within 2-days

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have become slightly better organized today.

Environmental conditions are conducive for continued gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week as the low moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.

>>> There’s a second tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific…with a low chance of developing within 2-days

An area of disturbed weather has formed a few hundred miles south through southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

An area of low pressure is expected to form from this disturbance several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days, where environmental conditions are likely to be conducive for development.

A tropical depression could form later this week while the low moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 12E (Kay)

NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite Image

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have become slightly better organized today. Environmental conditions are conducive for continued gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week as the low moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low… 20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

2.) An area of disturbed weather has formed a few hundred miles south through southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this disturbance several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days, where environmental conditions are likely to be conducive for development. A tropical depression could form later this week while the low moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

Satellite image of this area