Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
August 8, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 10E (Ivette) remains active, now in the Central Pacific…located about 1135 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 11E (Javier) is active in the Eastern Pacific…located about 55 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 07W (Omais) remains active in the Western Pacific…located about 230 NM east of Yokosuka, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 08W is now active in the Western Pacific…located about 364 NM west-southwest of Wake Island

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for …Tropical Cyclone Ivette

Tropical Depression Ivette has now moved into the central Pacific…and will fade away as it passes well south of the Hawaiian Islands

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s the near real time wind profile of this tropical cyclone

Tropical Depression Ivette is located about 1135 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii, moving toward the west at near 8 mph.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), southwesterly wind shear is taking its toll on Ivette, as the low-level circulation center of the depression has now been devoid of deep convection for over 12 hours.

The initial motion has been set at 265 degrees, at 07 knots based on satellite fixes and infrared satellite animations during the past 6 to 12 hours.

Ivette will remain in a very hostile environment during the next couple of days, with the current southwesterly wind shear of 20-30 knots forecast to continue. As a result, the shallow system is expected to largely be driven by the low-level trade wind flow as it tracks off to the west-southwest through dissipation.

The CPHC official track forecast remains on the southern edge of the guidance, and has been adjusted slightly to the south of the previous forecast. The system is forecast to move over sea surface temperatures near 80-81F degrees during the next couple of days, but the hostile wind shear is expected to win the battle…with organized deep convection unlikely to redevelop near the center. As a result, TD Ivette will likely become a remnant low later today, with dissipation expected by 48 hours.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and TAOS wind impacts layer for …Tropical Cyclone Javier

Tropical Storm 11E (Javier) is now active in the eastern Pacific…and is bringing heavy rains over southern Baja California

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s the near real time wind profile of this tropical cyclone

Tropical Storm Javier is located about 55 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico…and is moving toward the northwest at near 10 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Javier has not become better organized, with a significant decrease in the associated deep convection, aside from a small burst near or north of the estimated center.

Since the wind shear is forecast to remain very low for the next couple of days, some strengthening is still forecast…while Javier moves near the Baja California Peninsula.

Within the next couple of days, cooling sea surface temperatures, land interaction, and an increasingly stable air mass are likely to induce weakening. Although the center is difficult to locate, it is estimated that the northwestward motion, 310 degrees, at 9 knots, continues.

Javier is forecast to continue moving around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over Texas. The official forecast is slightly to the left of the previous one but on the eastern side of the track guidance suite.

Although the NHC forecast does not show Javier becoming a hurricane, it is prudent to keep the hurricane warning in place for the southern Baja California peninsula, at least until an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigates the system this afternoon.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Los Barriles to Todos Santos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
* Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* San Evaristo to Loreto
* Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over coastal parts of the Mexican states of Sinaloa and southern Sonora into Baja California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches through Wednesday morning.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over the extreme southern portion of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the remainder of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area by late afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for …Tropical Cyclone Omais

Tropical Storm 07W (Omais) will maintain its current strength…while staying offshore from the Japanese coast

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…which was last located about 230 NM east of Yokosuka, Japan

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts continued elongation of the convective structure, due to interaction with the mid-latitude westerly flow.

The upper level environment continues to deteriorate…while sea surface temperatures are cooling along its path.

TS 07W will begin to accelerate northeastward along the leading edge of the approaching mid-level trough of low pressure. The maximum winds will slowly decrease, however as the system gains upper level support…it will maintain its strong wind field.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #17 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots

The center of TS Omais will remain offshore from the east coast of Japan, as will the associated gusty winds. However, satellite imagery shows that the western rainbands will clip the coast, bringing rainfall locally…some of which will be heavy. Surf conditions will be rough along the east coast for a day or two as well.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours, tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for …Tropical Cyclone 08W

Tropical Cyclone 08W is now active in the western Pacific…although staying away from land as it gradually strengthens

Here’s the latest satellite image of this system, with the looping version…along with what the computer models are showing. This storm is located about 364 NM west-southwest of Wake Island

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows continued improvement in the convective structure, with deep formative cloud banding into the low level circulation center.

TD 08W is located in a favorable environment with radial outflow, low 10-15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

TS 08W will continue to turn northwesterly, keeping it in a favorable conditions for steady intensification…reaching typhoon intensity within 72 hours. On its current track, this strengthening storm will remain away from land…although open ocean mariners should steer clear.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #2 were 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots