Tropical Cyclone Activity Report - Pacific / Indian Oceans

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

By: PDC
June 24, 2016

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Central or Eastern Pacific Ocean, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida…and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii

However, there’s a tropical disturbance well offshore from the west coast of Mexico, shown above on the PDC Atlas, which has a low chance of developing over the next 2-days…remaining low over the next 5-days (indicated by the yellow elongated circle on the image above)

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this general area

An area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Some slow development of this system is possible by early next week while the low moves to the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph.

This area of disturbed weather poses no threat to the Mexican coast…nor the Hawaiian Islands.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 24-hours

There are no active tropical cyclones according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in the western Pacific, Indian Ocean…or Arabian Sea

However, there are two tropical disturbances, circled in yellow…on the PDC Atlas above.

1.) The first is located in the South China Sea, approximately 350 NM west-southwest of Manila, Philippines

This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 96W…here’s a satellite image – with what a computer model is showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a broad area of convection with limited organization.

Upper level analysis indicates an marginal environment with modest outflow to the west…although restricted elsewhere.

There’s a weak upper level low pressure system to the east, which is creating 15-25 knots of wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds in this area are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

Due to the marginal environment, the potential for development within the next 24 hours remains low.

2.) The second is located in the Western Pacific Ocean, approximately 275 NM southeast of Koror, Palau.

This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 97W, here’s a satellite image…and what a computer model is showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a broad area of deep convection…associated with a weak low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis currently indicates a favorable environment with good outflow…in all but the eastern quadrant.

Global computer models indicate modest development of this disturbance over the next few days…as it tracks west-northwestward across the Philippine Sea.

Maximum sustained winds in this area are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

The potential for development within the next 24 hours remains low.

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

A broad area of low pressure has formed about 1050 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditons are expected to become somewhat conducive for slow development of this system early next week while the low moves to the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Satellite image of this area