Hurricane 08L (Gonzalo) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean (near the Caribbean Islands)…located approximately 830 miles south of Bermuda
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers, with 3 hour precipitation accumulation for Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gonzalo)
Hurricane 08L (Gonzalo) remains active near the Caribbean Islands, category 2 storm…heading towards category 4
Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this hurricane…which has become the sixth hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Gonzalo has a chance of becoming the Atlantic’s first Category 4 hurricane since October 2, 2011…when Hurricane Ophelia reached 140 mph winds.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), tropical storm 08L Gonzalo is located approximately 830 miles south of Bermuda…and is moving northwest at near 13 mph.
As of the NHC advisory #9, sustained winds are estimated to be 110 mph, with higher gusts.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, and the San Juan Doppler weather radar, indicate that the earlier intensification process has slowed down.
The increasing southwesterly flow should gradually accelerate Gonzalo toward the northeast, with this tropical cyclone potentially threatening Bermuda in about three days.
Recent radar and satellite data indicate that the eye of Gonzalo has been clearing out, and gradually becoming better defined with a diameter of about 20 nautical miles. Once the eyewall stabilizes, intensification will likely resume, and in fact the reconnaissance aircraft a few moments ago observed winds of 99 knots…which suggests this intensification is beginning.
Buoy data indicate that water temperatures are slightly cooler now, probably due to cold upwelling created by the wake of former Hurricane Fay, but they are still sufficiently warm enough to support a category 4 hurricane. The best shear conditions, and upper-level outflow regime are expected to occur on Wednesday into Thursday morning…and that’s when Gonzalo is expected to strengthen into a category 4 hurricane.
As Gonzalo moves by Bermuda Friday…this hurricane is likely to be rated somewhere between a category 1-3 tropical cyclone.
Afterwards, eyewall cycles and possible cold upwelling beneath the hurricane are likely to cause some fluctuations in the intensity. By 72 hours, increasing southwesterly wind shear, and interaction with a strong cold front…is expected to induce weakening. By 120 hours, Gonzalo should be over the even cold waters of the North Atlantic and experiencing shear of more than 50 knots, which should result in the cyclone becoming a extra-tropical low.
Strengthening Category 2 Hurricane Gonzalo is heading away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, after moving through the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands Monday night…causing heavy weather conditions. Here’s the radar image from Puerto Rico this morning
Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this storm…along with what the computer models are showing.
Here’s a looping radar image showing the extended view of this strengthening hurricane…credit: Brian McNoldy, University of Miami
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation
Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to Invest 91L
This area of low pressure is located about 1200 miles east of the lesser Antilles.
Development of this area, as it moves northwestward, is expected to be slow.
The NHC is giving is a low chance of developing during the next 48 hours…which increases slightly over the next 5-day period.
Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing.
This disturbance doesn’t appear to pose any threat to land areas well into the future.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map
Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane 08L (Gonzalo)
NOAA textual forecast
NOAA graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
A broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although this system has become a little better organized overall during the past few hours, any further development of this system is expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds. The low is forecast to move northwestward and then northward over the central tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic
Caribbean Sea
There are no active tropical cyclones
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones