Tropical Storm 07L (Fay) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 740 miles east-northeast of Bermuda
Tropical Storm 08L (Gonzalo) remains active near the Caribbean Islands…located approximately 10 miles northwest of Antigua
Tropical Storm 07L (Fay) remains active in the Atlantic, although weakening…and will become a post-tropical system later today
Tropical Storm Fay is quickly moving away from Bermuda, after impacting that island with heavy weather Sunday. Winds reached near hurricane force, topping-out at 61 mph at the Bermuda airport…with a gust to 82 mph. The airport recorded 1.85″ of rain from the passing storm.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), sub-tropical depression 07L is located approximately 740 miles east-northeast of Bermuda…and is moving northwest at a fast paced 29 mph.
As of the NHC advisory #14, sustained winds are estimated to be 58 mph, with higher gusts.
TS Fay is on its way to becoming a post-tropical cyclone, or even dissipating within a frontal zone. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a cold front is located just to the west of Fay, and cold air clouds are wrapping around the western side of the system.
In addition, deep convection is now displaced well to the northeast of what passes for a low-level center. The Florida State University cyclone phase evolution analyses indicate that Fay has a warm core, which is the reason why it is still designated as a tropical storm, but it won’t be one for much longer.
The initial wind speed is lowered slightly to 50 kt, following the decrease in the satellite intensity estimates. The storm is moving quickly eastward at about 29 mph as it is embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow. Assuming it maintains a closed circulation, a continued eastward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected.
Tropical Storm 08L (Gonzalo) remains active near the Caribbean Islands…approaching hurricane strength
Here’s a NASA satellite image of this storm…taken yesterday.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), tropical storm 08L Gonzalo is located approximately 10 miles northwest of Antigua…and is moving west-northwest at near 10 mph.
As of the NHC advisory #5, sustained winds are estimated to be 65 mph, with higher gusts.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Gonzalo this morning found maximum flight level winds of 64 knots. In addition, the Antigua-Barbuda Meteorological Service recently reported a sustained wind of 58 knots and a gust to 76 knots.
Reports from the aircraft radar and Antigua-Barbuda also indicate the center of Gonzalo passed over Antigua between 1300-1400 UTC.
Gonzalo is expected to continue movinge west-northwestward today, and turn toward the northwest after 24 hours when the cyclone clears the northern Lesser Antilles.
Thereafter, Gonzalo to move slowly northward, and turn towards the northeast and accelerate on days 4 and 5.
The satellite presentation of Gonzalo has continued to improve, and radar data from Guadeloupe indicates that a small but intense vortex may have passed over Antigua earlier this morning.
Overall, the improvement in the horizontal and vertical structure of Gonzalo the past several hours, along with weak wind shear, and sea surface temperatures greater than 85F, should allow for at least steady strengthening of the cyclone through the next 96 hours.
By 120 hours, southwesterly wind shear of around 20 knots is expected to affect Gonzalo, which should induce a slow weakening trend.
Hurricane Warnings are active in the British Virgin Islands…as it moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands. This storm passed over Antigua Island this morning, with sustained winds approaching 65 mph…with gusts to near 90 mph.
In addition: Gonzalo is over the Lesser Antilles and affecting many eastern Caribbean islands so there are many warnings and watches in effect. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted the following: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Guadeloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, and Marie Galante, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St. Maartin, Saba and St. Eustatius, Barbuda, Antigua, Anguilla, St. Kitts And Nevis, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.
Here’s a radar mosaic from Guadaloupe this morning.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
Tropical Storm 07L (Fay)
Tropical Storm 08L (Gonzalo)
There are no active tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones