Tropical cyclone 06L (Edouard) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 520 miles west of Fayal Island in the Western Azores – Tropical Storm
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying Tropical Cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 06L (Edouard)
Tropical Storm Edouard continues to weaken over the open ocean…and expected to become post-tropical later today
This has been the strongest hurricane of the 2014 hurricane season…as well as being the longest lasting…although now is just a swirl of low clouds without any thunderstorm activity involved.
Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this tropical storm…along with a looping satellite image.
At the time of NHC advisory #33, sustained winds were estimated to be 45 mph…with higher gusts.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Edouard is drifting east-southeastward at only 3 mph.
TS Edouard is weakening rapidly…as strong northwesterly wind shear has caused the low and middle level centers of the cyclone to decouple during the last 12 hours. The system has also been devoid of any deep convection for some time, and unless it returns…Edouard will be declared a post-tropical cyclone later today.
Edouard is expected to spin down further during the next couple of days, due to a continuation of strong northwesterly wind shear, and its passage over a colder sea surface. Extra-tropical transition is indicated by the global models in about 48 hours…with full dissipation expected in about three days.
Edouard has significantly decelerated during the last 6 to 12 hours. This tropical cyclone is expected to move eastward with some increase in forward speed during the next day or so. A turn toward the southeast and south is shown therafter.
Here’s what the computer models are showing.
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3 hour precipitation accumulation
Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 95L…which is located off the west coast of Africa
Here’s a NASA MODIS satellite image of this area of disturbed tropical weather.
Environmental conditions aren’t particularly favorable for development at this time, although conditions are expected to improve a little over the next few days.
It appears that this disturbance will move in a northwesterly direction…coming close to the nearby Cape Verde Islands later this weekend.
The NHC is giving this area a low 20% chance of developing over the next two days…which increases to a 30% medium chance within the next 5 days.
Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
NHC graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map
Atlantic Ocean
Tropical cyclone 06L (Edouard)
NHC textual forecast
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
1.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure located between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Some development of this system is possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become less conducive. This low is expected to move slowly west- northwestward or northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…30 percent
2.) An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States over the weekend. The system is now expected to remain non-tropical (frontal) while it accelerates northeastward a short distance off of the U.S. east coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…0 percent
NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic
Caribbean Sea
There are no active tropical cyclones
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones