Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

An area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90L…is active over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula

The window of opportunity for this disturbance to become a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm will increase, if the system can push into the central Gulf of Mexico, where sea water temperatures are warm enough to support tropical development.
The expectations are that this system will move slowly to the north during the next 2-days, and emerge over the central Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning.
Here’s what the computer models are showing for this disturbance.
Here’s the 5-day NHC outlook graphic for this tropical disturbance.
No matter what the system does, it’s expected to bring wet weather for this upcoming holiday weekend.
Flash flooding will become an increasing threat…particularly over saturated parts of Florida and the Southeast.
Since May 13th, parts of St. Lucie and Martin Counties, Florida, have received 12-17 inches of rain, according to the National Weather Service. Most locations in the Florida Peninsula have had one of their wettest Mays so far, through May 22…according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
This wet weather will be associated with a broad area of surface low pressure, which formed Monday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and a trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere. These features will draw moisture northward from the tropics into the southeastern United States.
Flight delays may become possible at major airports such as those in Miami, Orlando and Atlanta through early next week.
Here’s the current looping radar image for the eastern GOM and Florida
Here’s the NOAA 5-day Precipitation Outlook graphic
Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical disturbance.
According to the NHC, a broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the Florida Straits.
Continued slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend.
If the system does develop further, it could become tropical storm Alberto.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent