Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto is located about 180 miles south-southwest of the western tip of Cuba
Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto, remains active in the northwestern Caribbean Sea…although will be spinning into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend
Maximum sustained winds…40 mph
Here’s the animated GeoColor satellite images for this system in the Caribbean Sea
This storm is producing thundershowers over the northwestern Caribbean…eastward to the western tip of Cuba.
Alberto will move slowly into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, which will bring the threat of heavy rain and flash flooding to a large area of the Southeast and Florida…lasting into next week.
The models show the storm moving inland somewhere between easternmost Louisiana and Florida’s Apalachee Bay. Cities that lie in the potential track include New Orleans; Gulfport, Mississippi; Mobile, Alabama; and Pensacola and Panama City, Florida.
Here’s what the computer models are showing for this storm.
Flash flooding will become an increasing threat…particularly over saturated parts of Florida and the Southeast. Where the winds push water from the Gulf of Mexico onshore…coastal flooding may result near and to the east of the storm’s path.
Here’s the NOAA 5-day Precipitation Outlook graphic
Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical storm.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the inner-core low-level wind field of Alberto has changed little since the previous advisory based on recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, along with land and ship observations. However, the convective structure of the cyclone has degraded over the past several hours, due a pronounced intrusion of dry mid-/upper-level air, and the cloud pattern continues to exhibit the structure of a sub-tropical cyclone.
A gradual turn toward the north should begin later tonight due to a strong ridge located to the east across the Greater Antilles. A steadier northward motion is forecast to occur by Saturday evening and continue into Sunday, as a sharp mid/upper-level trough digging southward into the central Gulf of Mexico, combines with southerly flow around the western portion of a large subtropical ridge…to produce deep-layer southerly flow across Alberto.
By 48 hours and continuing through 72 hours, the developing mid/upper-level low over the central Gulf should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and accelerate until it nears the Gulf Coast by Monday night. After that, steering currents are forecast to collapse as a broad weakness develops in the subtropical ridge axis located along the Gulf coast. Slow although steady recurvature into the westerlies across the Deep South is expected to begin by 96-120 hours.
The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory. The broad nature of the inner-core wind field, along with strong westerly wind shear in excess of 20 knots is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours. The latest model runs actually decrease the shear sooner than previously forecast, although the ragged nature of the wind field should prevent any significant intensification until after 48 hours.
As a result, only slow and steady strengthening is expected for the next 3 days, and Alberto could peak around 60 knots around 60 hours, when the storm will be in a low wind shear regime and over warm sea surface temperatures. However, proximity to dry mid- level air around landfall could hinder any additional strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory.
The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of tropical storm and storm surge watches for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast at this time. Note that if the intensity forecast increases with later advisories, a hurricane watch could be needed for a portion of the Gulf Coast.
1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeaster Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is expected to slow down after it moves inland.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of Alberto’s center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches have been issued for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local government officials.
3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the United States watch area beginning on Sunday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River…2 to 4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and parts of southern and southwestern Florida beginning Saturday evening. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.
SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Horseshoe Beach Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the United States portion of that watch area within 48 hours.
There are no current tropical cyclones
NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic
Gulf of Mexico
There are no current tropical cyclones
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico
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