Subtropical Storm Alberto is located about 205 miles west of Tampa, Florida
Subtropical Storm Alberto will continue to move through the eastern Gulf of Mexico…towards the Florida Panhandle
Alberto is the first named storm of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. There has never been a hurricane landfall in the Gulf of Mexico in the month of May.
Subtropical Storm Alberto is moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico…toward the Gulf Coast.
Alberto continues moving northward, with persistent thunderstorms roaming the area well to the east…over the Bahamas and Cuba.
Downpours and gusty winds will continue to spread across Florida and into southern Georgia into this evening. Heavier rain can be expected over Georgia and northward tonight into Monday.
Here’s the looping radar for Florida, and the Gulf coast towards New Orleans
Here’s the current conditions in the area, along with the flood alerts across Florida and the Gulf coast.
A broad area of at least 3″ of rain is likely from parts of Florida to the northern Gulf Coast to portions of the Carolina’s through the middle of the week ahead. Some areas may receive up to 12″ of rainfall, with the greatest chance in the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama and western Georgia.
Maximum sustained winds are 65 mph.
Here’s what the computer models are showing for this storm.
Flash flooding will become an increasing threat…particularly over saturated parts of Florida and the Southeast. Where the winds push water from the Gulf of Mexico onshore…coastal flooding may result near and to the east of the storm’s path (storm surge).
Here’s the NOAA 5-day Precipitation Outlook graphic
Here’s a near real time wind profile of this subtropical storm.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), after the increase in organization overnight and this morning, dry mid-level air has wrapped about three-quarters of the way around the circulation, resulting in an overall decrease in deep convection in all but the southeastern portion of the circulation. Earlier ASCAT and reconnaissance aircraft data supported an initial wind speed of 45 kt, and that intensity will be maintained for this advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this evening.
The main question regarding the future intensity of Alberto is whether or not the dry air will continue to be ingested near the center of the cyclone, or whether deep convection is able to regenerate overnight while the system is over marginally warm SSTs and within a low shear environment. It is assumed that some convection will redevelop to help maintain Alberto’s intensity, but that the environment will not be favorable enough to allow for significant strengthening. As a result, little change in intensity is forecast before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday.
Alberto appears to have turned north-northwestward with an initial motion estimate of 345/12 kt. The cyclone should move northwestward to north-northwestward tonight before turning back northward on Monday as it becomes vertically aligned with the upper-level low. After that time, the system should continue moving northward between the western Atlantic ridge and a mid-upper level trough that approaches the central U.S. around mid-week. The dynamical models are in much better agreement on Alberto’s track during the next 2 to 3 days, and the NHC track has been been adjusted accordingly. The new track is slightly west of and slower than the previous track during the first 24 to 36 hours.
1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through Tuesday.
2. A hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the track of Alberto’s center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials.
3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and tomorrow.
4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday:
Central Cuba…Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of 20-25 inches.
The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
The Florida Keys and south Florida…Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 10 inches.
Rest of the Florida peninsula…1 to 4 inches.
Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas…2 to 6 inches.
Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area tonight and continue through Monday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide… Crystal River to Navarre Florida…2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight across the central and northern Florida peninsula. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Crystal River to the Navarre, Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Anclote River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
There are no current tropical cyclones
NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic
Gulf of Mexico
Subtropical Cyclone Alberto
NHC textual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico
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