CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Florence)…is located 1515 miles east-southeast of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Gordon)…is located 35 miles south-southwest of Mobile, Alabama
Hurricane Florence…Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. A northwestward motion is expected to begin by Thursday with Florence’s forward speed decreasing by the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening could occur overnight, but a slow weakening trend is forecast to begin on Wednesday and continue through Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.
Tropical Storm 07L (Gordon) is moving across Gulf of Mexico…towards the Gulf coast
According to the NHC…Gordon is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph . A northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move inland across the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast to occur on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast after Gordon moves inland, and Gordon is forecast to become a tropical depression on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.
A NOAA Coastal Marine Observing site on Dauphin Island, Alabama has measured a sustained wind of 57 mph with a gust to 72 mph. A wind gust of 61 mph was recently observed at the Pensacola Naval Air Station.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND –
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide… Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island…3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay…2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mouth of Mississippi River…2 to 4 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread onshore during the next several hours within portions of the warning area, with hurricane conditions forecast by this evening in the hurricane warning area.
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic…being referred to as Invest 92L
Here’s what the computer models show
According to the NHC,A broad area of low pressure with disorganized cloudiness and showers is centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
>>> Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic
According to the NHC, a tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the coast of west Africa in a few days.
Some development of the system is possible over the weekend while the wave moves westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Florence)
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Gordon)
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