Tropical cyclone 06L (Edouard) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 1315 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands – Tropical Storm
Tropical storm Edouard is the 6th tropical cyclone of the season, located 1315 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands…which remains no threat to land areas
At the time of NHC advisory #5, sustained winds were estimated to be 45 mph…with higher gusts. The forecast calls for this tropical storm to strengthen into a category 1 hurricane in about 36-48 hours.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the cloud pattern is a little more organized today.
TS Edouard has a large low level circulation, and the upper level outflow has improved. Most of the global models suggest a decrease in the wind shear during the next few days. In addition, Edouard will be moving over a pool of warmer sea water…resulting in gradual strengthening.
This tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 knots (16 mph), steered by the air flow around the periphery of an Atlantic ridge of high pressure. A gradual turn to the northwest and north is forecast in about 3-4 days when this ridge weakens.
The unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft is dropping numerous weather instruments near and around Edouard, and this data is being ingested by global models…to help with the initialization.
As expected, the long range NHC outlook keeps this system well away from land…although open ocean vessels should steer clear of this strengthening tropical cyclone.
This area of disturbed weather, circled in yellow above, has a low 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression, which increases to 40% over the next five days…as it gets over the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s a good satellite image showing the center of this low level circulation center over Florida.
This area of low pressure is causing heavy rainfall over southern Florida and the Florida Straits, and is becoming somewhat more organized today. There are several environmental factors that continue to work against this disturbance becoming a tropical depression. These include moderately strong wind shear above…and the presence of dry air in the surrounding area.
The NHC suggests that this area, being referred to as Invest 92L, will drift westward slowly…entering the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Here’s long range radar loop from the Miami, Florida NWS office…showing precipitation impacting the area.
As this disturbance shifts westward slowly, it will bring locally heavy showers and thunderstorms with it, although isn’t expected to become a problem…in terms of tropical cyclone formation over Florida.
Using this NOAA experimental 5-day tropical weather outlook product, we can see Invest 92L moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, moving in a generally west-northwest direction…taking aim on the southern Texas coast early next week. This could pose a heavy rainfall threat to Texas, and the surrounding area. Time will tell if this disturbance will be able to attain tropical cyclone strength during its crossing of the Gulf.
Finally, there’s another area of disturbed weather showing up in the eastern Atlantic Ocean…being referred to as Invest 93L
Environmental factors look somewhat promising for development, although the NHC numbers are 20% for the next two days…remaining at 20% over the next five days.
It poses no threat to land areas at the moment.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
Tropical cyclone 06L
1.) The broad area of low pressure has moved westward and is now located over southern Florida just south of Lake Okeechobee. Shower activity is currently poorly organized, and strong upper-level winds as well as interaction with land will likely inhibit development of this system today. Once the low moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend while the system moves westward at around 10 mph. Regardless of development, this low will continue to bring locally heavy rains to portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys today and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent 2.) Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located south of
the Cape Verde Islands is showing some signs of organization. This
system, however, is forecast tomove westward or west-northwestward
at around 10 mph toward an area unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
There are no active tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones