Post-Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 145 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts
Tropical Cyclone 15L Maria is located about 65 miles east-southeast of Grand Turk Island
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose is dissipating over the western Atlantic Ocean
Tropical Storm Jose will remain off the East Coast of the United States, producing a combination of coastal flooding, high surf, tropical-storm force winds and rainfall…particularly in far southeastern New England.
TS Jose is a large storm, with tropical storm force winds extending 230 miles from the center. A wind gust of 48 mph was reported this morning at the Nantucket Airport…according to the NHC.
Here’s a graph showing expected strongest wind gusts through Thursday night
A tropical storm warning remains in effect along the Massachusetts coast from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach and includes Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.
An additional 2 to 4 inches of rain will be possible on Nantucket, and 1-2 inches are forecast for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard.
Jose will also continue to keep rough seas, with the danger of rip currents persisting for several days.
By Friday, the NHC says Jose will drift westward and become a post-tropical storm.
Here’s a graphic showing where Jose is…with additional information
Here’s a graph showing Tropical Storm Jose’s Watches and Warnings
Tropical Storm Jose has maximum sustained winds near 50 mph
According to the NHC:
The center of Jose has lacked deep convection for at least the past 12 hours. The cyclone now has the structure of an extratropical cyclone, with rain persisting in a shield that is displaced well to the west and northwest of the center. Based on this, Jose has been declared post-tropical. Surface observations from extreme southeast New England during the past 3 hours indicate that tropical storm conditions are persisting along the coast, and the tropical storm warnings in those locations remain in place. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Jose until the threat of tropical storm conditions along the coast has subsided. The initial intensity has been held at 45 kt, based on a recent ASCAT pass that showed several 40-45 kt wind vectors in the NW quadrant. No change has been made to the intensity forecast, and Jose is still expected to gradually spin down over the cold waters of the North Atlantic for the next 3 days. Most of the global models still show the remnant low dissipating within 96 h. Jose remains stuck in weak steering flow and has continued to drift slowly westward. Very little change has been made to the track forecast, and all of the global models show that the cyclone will continue to meander off the New England coast until it eventually dissipates around day 4. The NHC forecast remains close to the various track consensus aids. Based on data from the aforementioned ASCAT pass, the wind radii were extended in the NW and NE quadrants. However this wind appears to be primarily occuring offshore, to the east of Cape Cod. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring within the tropical storm warning area. These conditions are expected to continue through tonight. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 39.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 22/1200Z 39.6N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/0000Z 39.5N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/1200Z 39.3N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 24/0000Z 39.1N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 38.8N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next couple of days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches across Cape Cod and the offshore islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket bringing storm total accumulations towards 5 inches.
Hurricane 15L Maria is moving slowly towards the Turks and Caicos Islands…as a Category 3 storm
Puerto Rican emergency officials are reporting that 100 percent of the island is without power after Hurricane Maria onslaught…with at least 9 people having died from the storm.
Dominica has also been devastated, with no communication with the island…except through satellite phones and HAM radio operators.
Long term animated radar image for Hurricane Maria
A graphic showing where Hurricane Maria is…with additional information
Hurricane Maria has maximum sustained winds near 125 mph
According to the NHC:
Satellite images show that the eye has become more distinct and is surrounded by a ring of deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane has penetrated the eye a couple of times this evening and the crew reported that the eye had a diameter of 35 nmi and that it has become better defined. Flight-level winds increased a little bit during the last penetration and supported an intensity of 110 or 115 kt. At this time, I prefer the keep the winds at 110 kt since the SFMR measurements were a little lower. The central pressure is estimated at 955 mb. The atmosphere diagnosed by the models, as well as a warm ocean along the forecast track, should favor an increase in intensity. However, most of the models, suggest that Maria will change little and will remain a category 3 hurricane for the next day or two. The NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus ICON and shows no significant change through that time. Gradual weakening should begin later in the forecast period as Maria reaches higher latitudes and cooler waters. Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Maria is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 kt. The track of the hurricane has been and will be controlled by the flow around a narrow subtropical ridge to the northeast of the hurricane. Maria is reaching the western edge of that high, and this should cause the hurricane to turn north-northwestward and then northward with no significant change in forward speed for the next 3 days. After that time, Maria should encounter the mid-latitude southwesterly flow and recurve. The reliable guidance is remarkably clustered during the next 4 days. This significantly increases the confidence in the track forecast which is in between the multi-model consensus TVCX and the HFIP corrected consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of the southeastern United States on Friday. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 21.0N 70.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 22.0N 70.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 23.5N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 26.7N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 29.3N 72.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 31.2N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions continue across portions of the Dominican Republic, but should begin to subside during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas soon and will continue through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Northern Haiti...4 to 8 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will reach the remainder of the Bahamas soon and should reach portions of the United States southeastern coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Post-Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose)
Tropical cyclone 15L (Maria)