Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 350 miles south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts
Tropical Cyclone 15L Maria is located about 115 miles west of Guadeloupe
Hurricane Jose remains active over the Atlantic Ocean…maintaining its strength for the time being
Here’s a graphic showing where Jose is…with additional information
Here’s a graph showing Hurricane Jose’s Watches and Warnings
Hurricane Jose has maximum sustained winds near 75 mph, making it a Category 1 storm.
High surf and rip currents will continue to affect the U.S. east coast as Hurricane Jose moves northward. Soaking rain and gusty winds from Jose will brush parts of the U.S. east coast. Here’s a graphic map showing wave heights in the area.
Tropical storm force winds are possible along portions of the immediate coast…as well as some coastal flooding problems locally.
The majority of forecast models show Jose’s center remaining off the United States east Coast. Here’s a graph showing Tuesday’s rain and wind forecast.
According to the NHC:
Satellite images indicate that a small area of deep convection is persisting near the center of Jose. While it doesn't look particularly tropical at the moment, there is no evidence of fronts connected to the center and the system is definitely warm core. Thus, Jose will stay a tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed remains 65 kt based on the previous reconnaissance mission. Some weakening is likely to begin within 24 hours due to Jose moving over colder waters. Continued weakening is in the forecast due to the marginal water temperatures, although the system could eventually move over the warm Gulf Stream again if it takes a southward turn in the right spot. Thus, the intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one through 72 hours, then is leveled off at 45 kt to account for the warmer water possibility. Jose continues to move erratically northward, with the center wobbling due to the convective bursts. The hurricane should turn toward the northeast and east over the next two days as it moves around a ridge over the western Atlantic. After that point, the forecast becomes more uncertain, with some models curving the system south and west under a building high over the northeastern United States, and others drifting the cyclone eastward just out of the reach of the ridge. With the guidance shifting eastward on this cycle, the official forecast will follow the trend, although not shift as strongly to the east since it wouldn't take a very large track error to either catch or miss that ridge. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. Elsewhere, Jose is expected to produce light rainfall with little risk of flooding over the mid-Atlantic coast and the northeast states. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 36.0N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 37.1N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 38.5N 70.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 39.6N 68.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 40.0N 67.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 39.3N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 23/0600Z 38.7N 66.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 24/0600Z 38.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding.
Hurricane 15L Maria is now moving through the Caribbean Islands…as a Category 5 storm!
Long term animated radar image for Hurricane Maria
Hurricane Maria has maximum sustained winds near 160 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane Maria is impacting the Leeward Islands, then will intensify and take aim on the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and other parts of the northeast Caribbeans.
It’s still too early to know whether Maria will eventually become a threat to the east coast of the United States. However, if Maria comes close to the coasts of the United States…it would not be until early next week.
Thus, all residents along the east Coast should keep an eye on the progress of Maria.
According to the NHC:
Interaction of the small core of Maria with the mountainous terrain of Dominica caused only a slight diminution of the intensity of the hurricane. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft after the center passed the island indicate an intensity of about 135 kt, at the high end of category 4 strength. Another Air Force aircraft has begun investigating Maria, and preliminary data from the plane suggest that the hurricane may have regained category 5 intensity. Maria will be moving through a low-shear atmospheric environment and mainly over warm waters for the next couple of days. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the early part of the forecast period due to eyewall replacement events. Land influences could cause some weakening within the next 36 hours. Later in the forecast period, a modest increase in vertical shear could cause some weakening. The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model consensus. After smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles of Maria's eye, the initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory package. A weak ridge situated over the western Atlantic is expected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on this track the center of the hurricane is forecast to pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken, partially due to the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane Jose. This should cause Maria to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by day 4-5. There is fairly good agreement amongst the reliable guidance, and the new official track forecast is very similar to the previous one. This is generally near the left side of the envelope of model tracks, and favors the ECMWF and the corrected consensus predictions. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next day or so. 2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight and Wednesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. A life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, is expected for the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. 4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 16.0N 62.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.7N 63.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 17.6N 64.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 18.5N 66.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO 48H 21/0600Z 19.3N 67.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 21.2N 70.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 23.7N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 26.5N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread throughout portions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder of the hurricane warning area later today and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches. Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance…which has a low chance of developing in the central Atlantic
A small low pressure area, the remnants of Lee, is located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone by late in the week while the system moves northwestward to northward over the central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)
Tropical cyclone 15L (Maria)
Gulf of Mexico
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