Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 150 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts
Tropical Cyclone 15L Maria is located about 95 miles north-northwest of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Jose remains active over the Atlantic Ocean
Tropical Storm Jose will remain well off the East Coast of the United States but will still produce a combination of coastal flooding, high surf, tropical-storm force winds and rainfall…particularly in far southeastern New England.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of coastal southeast Massachusetts, from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.
Here’s a graphic showing where Jose is…with additional information
Here’s a graph showing Tropical Storm Jose’s Watches and Warnings
Tropical Storm Jose has maximum sustained winds near 60 mph
- Wind: Scattered power outages and tree damage cannot be ruled out along the immediate coast of far southeast New England
- Rainfall: Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches through Thursday over Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard. Locally higher rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible on Nantucket.
- High surf, rip currents: Large swells from Jose will continue to affect the Eastern Seaboard. This will contribute to life-threatening rip currents in some locations.
- Coastal flooding: Coastal flooding is likely through much of this week along southeast New England’s shorelines with the potential for significant beach erosion, given the high astronomical tides and multiple tide cycles with coastal flooding. Additional coastal flooding is possible elsewhere along the Northeast coast over the next several days.
According to the NHC:
Jose's structure continues to consist of bands of shallow to moderate convection that are well removed to from the center, mainly in the northeast and northwest quadrants. Dvorak Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB have fallen a little bit, but due to the lack of deep convection near the center, it isn't clear how applicable the Dvorak technique is in this case. The intensity has therefore been held at 50 kt, in deference to earlier ASCAT and aircraft data. Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled for later this morning, and this should provide more information on Jose's intensity and wind radii. The intensity guidance is still in very good agreement that Jose will continue to gradually weaken. I have no reason to doubt this, since Jose will remain over cold waters and embedded within a fairly dry environment. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast, except to show Jose becoming post-tropical within 36 hours, based on the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs. A deep-layer trough to the northeast of Jose has continued to pull away, and the tropical storm has come to a near stop. The estimated motion is 90/2 kt, but it may be even slower than that. The global models continue to agree that Jose will remain within weak steering flow through the forecast period. The new NHC forecast remains close to the various consensus aids and keeps Jose nearly stationary through 96 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of extreme southeastern New England during the next day or two, and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 39.8N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 39.7N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 39.8N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 39.8N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 23/0600Z 39.6N 69.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 24/0600Z 39.4N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z 39.5N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning area today. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next few days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Friday: Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod...additional 1 to 2 inches. Nantucket...additional 2 to 4 inches.
Hurricane 15L Maria is moving offshore northwest of Puerto Rico…as a Category 2 storm
Hurricane Maria struck Puerto Rico Wednesday morning, ripping trees out of the ground and devastating more than half of the island with hurricane force winds.
“This is total devastation,” said Carlos Mercader, a spokesman for Puerto Rico’s governor. “Puerto Rico, in terms of the infrastructure, will not be the same…this is something of historic proportions.”
Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico near the city of Yabucoa, with winds of 155 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.
National Weather Service radars became inoperable under the influence of the hurricane force winds.
Maria became the first hurricane of Category 4 strength or higher in nearly 80 years to hit the US territory.
Long term animated radar image for Hurricane Maria
Hurricane Maria has maximum sustained winds near 115 mph
According to the NHC:
Although the large, 40 n mi diameter, eye of the hurricane is still a little ragged-looking, it is gradually becoming better defined, and a ring of cold cloud tops is intensifying around the eye. The current intensity estimate is 100 kt based on earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter data and recent Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Maria is likely to move over warm waters with moderate southwesterly vertical shear for the next couple of days. Maria's well-developed upper-level outflow suggests that shear is probably not having much influence over the hurricane at this time. Although the numerical guidance is not very aggressive about intensification, based on the current trends of the cloud pattern, some strengthening seems likely over the next day or so. Later in the forecast period, shear will probably cause gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus. Maria continues its northwestward motion, at about 315/8 kt. The hurricane is expected to turn north-northwestward and northward around a subtropical ridge over the Atlantic for the next 2 to 3 days. Late in the forecast period, a mid-level high over the northeastern U.S. could slow the forward motion somewhat. This high is forecast by the global models to subsequently weaken however, which should allow Maria to turn north-northeastward in the flow on the northwestern edge of a subtropical ridge over the west-central Atlantic. The official track forecast lies between the corrected consensus guidance and the latest ECMWF prediction. This is quite similar to the previous NHC track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue, and catastrophic flash flooding is occurring in Puerto Rico, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 19.6N 68.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 21.6N 70.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 22.9N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 24.3N 71.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 27.4N 72.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 30.0N 72.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Strong gusty winds are still occurring over portions of Puerto Rico, but should continue to gradually subside this morning. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the warning areas in the Dominican Republic. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning in these areas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late Friday. STORM SURGE: Water levels in Puerto Rico should continue receding during the next few hours. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 35 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 2 to 4 inches. Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches. Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches. Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches. Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are still affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells are also affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and should begin in the Southeastern Bahamas later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance…which has a low chance of developing
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the remnants of Lee remain disorganized. Upper-level winds are expected to be unfavorable for significant development during the next few days. The low is forecast to move north-northwestward or northward over the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5-days...low...10 percent
Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)
Tropical cyclone 15L (Maria)
Gulf of Mexico
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