Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 395 miles west of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 14L (Lee) is located about 980 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Cyclone 15L Maria is located about 100 miles northeast of Barbados
Hurricane Jose remains active over the Atlantic Ocean away from land…peaking in strength now
Here’s a graphic showing where Jose is…with additional information
Hurricane Jose has maximum sustained winds near 90 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Large swells spreading as far north as coastal New England.
Here’s a graphic map showing wave heights in the area.
According to the NHC:
Jose's cloud pattern has transformed from one with a tight inner core to one with a large convective band over the northern semicircle that wraps around the center. This change in structure can be seen in recent microwave imagery and aircraft data that show an expansion of the radius of maximum winds. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft still support an initial wind speed of 80 kt, but the minimum pressure has risen several millibars since this morning. Strong southwesterly shear and gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along the track of Jose are expected to cause gradual weakening, however Jose is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity through 48 hours. Around that time, Jose is forecast to pass north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and over much cooler waters, which will likely result in an additional decrease in intensity at 72 h and beyond. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS guidance through 72 h, and closer to the global models at days 4 and 5. Jose is moving northward at about 8 kt around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. The track forecast reasoning is the same as the previous advisory. Jose should continue northward during the next day or so, then turn north- northeastward as a broad mid-latitude trough passes north of the hurricane. After the trough passes Jose's longitude in about 72 h, the cyclone will be left within weak steering currents and is expected to drift eastward, then southeastward and southward late in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast through 72 h is virtually on top of the previous advisory. The latest dynamical model guidance takes Jose a little more westward very late in the period, and the new NHC track forecast has been shifted to the left at day 5, close to the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts from Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. A tropical storm watch is now in effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of three to five inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. Based on the current forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope. Any deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 32.2N 71.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 33.4N 71.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 34.9N 71.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 36.6N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 38.3N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 40.2N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 39.5N 68.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 38.5N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL...Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along the Mid Atlantic coast, and from southeast New York to coastal Maine. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding.
Tropical Depression 14L (Lee) remains active over the Atlantic Ocean…away from land (easternmost storm)
Tropical Depression Lee has maximum sustained winds near 35 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
According to the NHC:
Deep convection associated with Lee has waned over the past several hours as dry air and shear take a toll on the tropical cyclone. A recent partial ASCAT pass showed 25 kt winds over the northwest portion of the circulation, assuming that there are stronger winds to the northeast of the center, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be generous. The vertical shear is forecast to increase to greater than 30 kt during the next 24 hours and it is doubtful that Lee will be able to generate enough organized deep convection to keep its status as a tropical cyclone for much longer. As a result of the shear and nearby dry air, weakening and degeneration into a remnant low is predicted by Monday night, if not sooner. The global models show the circulation dissipating in 2 to 3 days, and so does the NHC forecast. Lee has turned west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates, and little change to the previous NHC track forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.6N 38.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.1N 39.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.2N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 16.3N 42.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 17.7N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Hurricane 15L Maria is now threatening the Caribbean Islands, and possibly the Bahamas with time…as a major Category 3 storm
Hurricane Maria has maximum sustained winds near 85 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
According to the NHC:
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft received just after the previous advisory indicated that Maria's maximum sustained winds had increased to 70 kt. Since that time, a large central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C has formed, and data from the radar on Martinique shows 60-70 percent of an eyewall is present under the overcast. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to 75 kt, and that is the initial intensity. The initial motion is 290/11. The subtropical ridge to the north is expected to steer Maria generally west-northwestward for the next 72 h, with some decrease in the forward speed. After that time, the guidance suggests that the hurricane should turn more toward the northwest as it approaches the western end of the ridge. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track, which is similar to the previous track, is in best overall agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus and ECMWF models. Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that Maria is currently experiencing light to moderate southwesterly shear. However, all indications are that the shear should diminish during the next 24-48 h, which should allow steady to rapid strengthening. The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model forecast better than a 50 percent chance of 25-30 kt of strengthening during the next 24 h, and about a 35 percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48 h. Based on this, the intensity forecast has been increased to show Maria becoming a major hurricane in 24 h and a category 4 hurricane in 48 h. Late in the forecast period, a combination of land interaction and increasing shear should cause some weakening. The new intensity forecast is near the upper edge of the guidance in best overall agreement with the HWRF. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria continues to strengthen and is expected to be at major hurricane intensity when it affects portions of the Leeward Islands over the next few days, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been issued for portions of the Leeward Islands, and these warnings will likely be extended northward and westward on Monday. 2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane. Hurricane watches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and could be extended to Puerto Rico early Monday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 14.2N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.7N 59.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.4N 61.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 62.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 16.9N 63.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 18.5N 67.0W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO 96H 22/0000Z 20.0N 69.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 23/0000Z 22.0N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of the Leeward Islands by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the day on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area later tonight through Monday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the central and southern Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, through Wednesday night. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the remaining northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla, as well as the Windward Islands and Barbados. Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)
Tropical cyclone 14L (Lee)
Tropical cyclone 15L (Maria)
Gulf of Mexico
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