Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 435 miles west-southwest of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 14L (Lee) is located about 790 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Cyclone 15L Maria is located about 410 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles
Hurricane Jose remains active over the Atlantic Ocean away from land…with a bit more strengthening likely
Here’s a graphic showing where Jose is…with additional information
Hurricane Jose has maximum sustained winds near 80 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Large swells should reach the Eastern Seaboard, spreading as far north as coastal New England. Waves may reach the coastlines north of the Georgia and South Carolina later this weekend.
Here’s a graphic map showing wave heights in the area.
According to the NHC:
The satellite presentation of Jose continues to reveal little change in the overall cloud structure since yesterday afternoon. The 25-30 kt of westerly shear is inhibiting any further development of the inner core. Cloud tops have warmed near the center and the cyclone appears to be tilted toward the northeast with height in earlier microwave images. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged from the last advisory, and the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. Due to the expected shear persisting through the entire forecast period, the statistical and dynamical intensity guidance no longer indicate any hint of strengthening, even in the short term. Accordingly, The NHC forecast reflects little change in strength through the 48 hour period, then shows gradual weakening through 5 days. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on this northward track, along the western periphery of the Bermuda high, through 48 hours. Afterward, Jose should gradually turn north-northeastward to northeastward on days 3 and 4. Near the end of the forecast period, Jose is forecast to slowly turn eastward within the mid-latitude, mid-level westerly flow associated with shortwave trough moving over the Canadian Maritimes. The official forecast has been adjusted slightly to the west, closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and near a blend of the UKMET, and ECMWF which have also shifted a bit westward. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday. 2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.0N 71.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 31.0N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 34.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 35.6N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 38.6N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 40.0N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 39.8N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.
Tropical Storm 14L (Lee) remains active over the Atlantic Ocean…away from land (easternmost storm)
According to the NHC:
Lee remains sheared this morning, with the center of circulation just beneath the northern edge of the cloud mass. Consequently, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt and agrees with the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is forecast to remain in an upper wind environment of strong west-northwesterly shear through the forecast period. The global and statistical models all show no intensification of Lee through 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual weakening trend through day 5. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF show dissipation in less than 4 days. Only the HWRF hurricane model indicates modest strengthening around the 48 hour period. The official forecast is similar to the previous package and reflects Lee degenerating into a remnant low in 4 days. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/6 kt. The cyclone is currently moving within the easterly mid-level flow produced by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north. This ridge is forecast to erode in 36 hours, allowing Lee to gradually turn west-northwestward and continue tracking in this fashion through 5 days. A slight adjustment to the right of the previous advisory was made to lie more closely to the HCCA technique and a blend of the ECMWF and GFS global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.0N 35.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 13.1N 36.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 13.4N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 14.2N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 15.0N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 17.1N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 18.9N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0600Z 20.3N 52.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Tropical Storm 15L Maria is now active over the Atlantic Ocean…away from land (westernmost storm)
According to the NHC:
Maria's cloud pattern is becoming better organized with developing convective banding features and a gradually expanding CDO. Upper-level outflow is only slightly restricted over the southern portion of the circulation. The current intensity is set at 55 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The environment should be conducive for continued strengthening for the next several days with low shear, a warm ocean and a fairly moist mid-tropospheric air mass. The official intensity forecast follows the model consensus, but a more rapid intensification than indicated here is certainly possible over the next couple of days. Latest center fixes indicate that the tropical cyclone is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A mid-level high pressure area to the north of Maria is forecast to weaken slightly over the next several days. This should result in a continued west-northwestward motion with a slowing of forward speed. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, and lies on the left side of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of these islands today. 2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.0N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 13.7N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 14.5N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 15.2N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 17.0N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 18.4N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/0600Z 19.5N 69.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane watch area. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the central and southern Leeward Islands through Wednesday night. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in the northern Leeward Islands and north-central Windward Islands. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)
Tropical cyclone 14L (Lee)
Tropical cyclone 15L (Maria)
Gulf of Mexico
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