Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 500 miles southwest of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 14L is located about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
Hurricane Jose remains active over the Atlantic Ocean away from land…with further strengthening likely
Here’s a graphic showing where Jose is…with additional information
Hurricane Jose has maximum sustained winds near 80 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Jose is finally finishing its loop in the western Atlantic Ocean, well south of Bermuda…and is expected to strengthen back into a hurricane tonight.
Most of the forecast models show Jose moving north and then northeast to the east of both the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast…avoiding direct land impacts.
Regardless, large swells generated by Jose will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda and the north coasts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Starting Saturday, these large swells should reach the Eastern Seaboard, spreading as far north as coastal New England. Waves may reach the coastlines north of the Georgia and South Carolina later this weekend.
Here’s a graphic map showing wave heights in the area.
According to the NHC:
Since the reconnaissance flight earlier this afternoon, convection within the inner-core of Jose has increased in coverage and organization. A banding eye appears to be forming, and a warm spot is apparent in IR imagery near the center of the cyclone. Dvorak classifications at 0000 UTC still supported an intensity of 65 kt, but given the increase in organization since then, the initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt. Additional strengthening is still expected for at least the next 24 to 36 h. After that time, an increase in southwesterly shear and gradually cooling SSTs are still expected to cap the intensification and eventually cause Jose to gradually weaken. The official intensity forecast remains a little above the model consensus for the first 48 h, and is close after that. Jose continues to move toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is 305/8 kt. The main source of uncertainty in the track forecast is at days 4 and 5, since the global models disagree on the speed at which Jose will move northward along the western edge of the subtropical ridge. The GFS continues to show a faster movement, which allows Jose to pass very close to the U.S. east coast before an approaching trough forces the cyclone to turn more toward the northeast. On the other hand, the ECMWF shows a slower track, so the trough steers the hurricane farther east. The NHC forecast has not been changed substantially and is still just a touch slower than the model consensus, out of respect to the ECMWF. When the 00Z ECMWF and UKMET models become available tonight, it could shed more light on the future speed of the hurricane. It is still important to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively, and this error could be in the speed of the hurricane (along track error). While the official track forecast keeps the center of Jose offshore for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S. east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 27.4N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 28.1N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 29.2N 72.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 30.6N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 32.0N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 34.6N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 37.5N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 41.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Depression 14L remains active over the Atlantic Ocean…away from land
According to the NHC:
The overall organization of the tropical depression has changed little since this afternoon. The center remains exposed to the north and northwest of the deep convection, but there has been a slight increase in banding over the southern semicircle within the past hour or two. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak data T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB. The depression is forecast to remain within an area of moderate to strong northwesterly shear during the next 24 to 36 hours while it moves over warm water. Therefore, only slight strengthening is indicated over the weekend. After that time, increasing westerly shear is forecast to weaken the cyclone, and it is expected to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The depression has turned westward since the previous advisory, and the initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a narrow ridge over the eastern Atlantic through Sunday. The global models indicate that the ridge will weaken early next week as a large deep-layer trough forms over the east-central Atlantic. This is expected to result in a slightly more poleward track later in the period. The updated NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance through 48 hours, but leans toward the left side of the envelope later in the period since the typically reliable ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus models are along the southern edge envelope at 72 h and beyond. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 12.8N 30.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 12.8N 31.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 12.9N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 13.0N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 13.3N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 15.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 17.2N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
>>> Finally, there’s a tropical disturbance being investigated by the NHC, which could become tropical storm Lee later today or Saturday
1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands are showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical cyclone is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves westward or west-northwestward around 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)
Tropical cyclone 14L
Gulf of Mexico
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