Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda
Tropical Storm Jose remains active over the Atlantic Ocean…away from land
Here’s a graphic showing where TS Jose is…with additional information
TS Jose has maximum sustained winds near 70 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
After more than a week as a hurricane, Jose weakened to a tropical storm today…while tracking westward in the Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center reports that Jose will likely re-intensify into a hurricane again Friday.
Forecast guidance shows Jose then pulling up to the north and northeast, to the east of both the Bahamas and the United States…and west of Bermuda.
The National Weather Service in Newport, N.C. reported Thursday morning, “it’s still uncertain exactly how close Jose will track to the North Carolina coast.”
Meanwhile, swells generated by the storm are affecting the southeast U.S. coast as well as Bermuda, the Bahamas and Puerto Rico…which will spread toward the Mid-Atlantic coast over the next several days.
According to the NHC:
Although the shear affecting Jose for the past several days appears to be relenting, deep convection is still limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, perhaps in part due to dry air that was observed earlier today. A blend a objective and subjective current intensity estimates still supports an intensity of 60 kt. No change has been made to the intensity forecast, which remains near the multi-model consensus. Based on SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF models, Jose should become embedded in a more humid environment beginning in about 12 h, and this, along with warm SSTSs, should support at least gradual strengthening. The intensity guidance remains in fairly good agreement that Jose will become a hurricane again tomorrow, and will have about 48-72 hours to intensify further before the shear increases substantially. Toward the end of the forecast, gradual weakening is forecast, but Jose is still expected to be a hurricane at day 5. Much like the intensity forecast, very little change has been made to the NHC track forecast. Based on a few recent microwave images, Jose seems to be continuing to move west-northwestward at around 7 kt. Jose is still expected to track along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, causing the cyclone to gradually turn toward the north over the next 2 days. Aside from the UKMET, which remains an outlier, the models are in fairly good agreement on the future heading of Jose, and vary mostly in speed. The new NHC forecast continues to generally split the GFS and ECMWF models, and is close to HCCA, which should account for the UKMET's recent west bias. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 25.5N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 26.1N 69.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 26.9N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 27.9N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 29.0N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 31.4N 72.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 34.2N 71.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 37.0N 70.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Finally, in addition to TS Jose there is a tropical disturbance being investigated by the NHC
1.) A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system while it moves westward to west- northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)
Tropical cyclone 14L
Gulf of Mexico
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