Tropical Cyclone 11L (Irma) is located about 30 miles north-northeast of Cedar Key, Florida
Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 255 miles northeast of Grand Turk Island
Tropical Storm Irma is moving through Florida, and is currently a Category 2 Hurricane…heading north-northwest at ~ 10 mph
Irma will continue impacting Florida, with a storm surge moving over parts of Florida, followed by damaging winds and flooding rains…as the storm moves up through the state.
Here’s the NWS Radar Images from Tampa, Florida
Hurricane Irma was the strongest hurricane to make landfall near Key West in 57 years.
Damaging winds will now move up the Florida Peninsula through early Monday. These winds may also reach parts of the southeast…from Alabama and Tennessee to Georgia and the Carolina’s.
Long term animation…showing the hurricane moving into and through the Caribbean Islands…up to the current time.
Here’s the current location of Hurricane Irma…with additional information
According to the NHC, Irma was the strongest storm ever in the Atlantic (not counting those that reached the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico)…and it came close to the all-time record hurricane wind speed of 190 mph.
Locally heavy rainfall is expected, with up to 20 inches possible, based on the latest rainfall forecasts from the NHC:
- Western Florida Peninsula: 10-15 inches, with isolated 20″ totals
- Eastern Florida Peninsula: 8-2 inches, with isolated 16″ totals
- Eastern Florida Panhandle: 3-6 inches, with isolated 10″ totals
Here’s the NWS 5-day Rainfall Outlook for Florida and the southeast United States
Hurricane Irma continues its onslaught through Florida, and into the southeast United States. Several records were broken, and according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach…the following relate to Irma’s winds:
> Irma had sustained winds of 185 mph for 37 hours, the longest any tropical cyclone around the world has maintained that intensity. The previous record was 24 hours, during Super Typhoon Haiyan in the northwest Pacific in 2013.
> Irma’s 185 mph winds were also the highest on record for a storm in the Atlantic Ocean (not counting the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico).
> When the entire Atlantic Basin is included, Irma is tied with the Florida Keys / Labor Day hurricane (1935), Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) for second-highest winds on record. Only Hurricane Allen had greater winds of 190 mph in 1980.
> At 185 mph, it was the strongest storm on record to impact the Leeward Islands. The Okeechobee Hurricane (1928) and David (1979) were the previous strongest at 160 mph.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
Irma is continuing to weaken as it moves across the western Florida peninsula, with the eye dissipating and weakening banding near the center. There are no recent observations of hurricane-force winds near the center, but based on the premise that such winds still exist over the Gulf of Mexico west of the center the initial intensity is reduced to 65 kt. It should be noted that near- hurricane force winds are occurring in a band well northeast of the center with sustained winds of 60 kt reported in the Jacksonville area. The cyclone should continue to weaken as it moves through the southeastern United States, becoming a tropical storm later today, a tropical depression by 36 h, and a remnant low by 48 h. The large-scale models forecast Irma to dissipate completely by 72 h, so the 72 h point has been removed from the forecast. The initial motion is 340/16. The cyclone is expected to move around the eastern side of a mid-level disturbance currently located along the U.S. Gulf Coast, which should cause a north-northwestward to northwestward motion until dissipation. The forecast track takes the center across the eastern Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and eventually into western Tennessee. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding along portions of the coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. 2. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of central and north Florida, with hurricane-force winds near the center. Also, Irma is a large hurricane, and hurricane-force wind gusts and sustained tropical-storm force winds extend far from the center. Wind hazards from Irma will continue to spread northward through Georgia and into portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina. 3. Irma continues to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding across much of the northern peninsula and eastern panhandle of Florida and southern Georgia, which is quickly spreading to the rest of the southeast United States. Intense rainfall rates of 2 inches or more per hour is leading to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and rivers. Significant river flooding is likely over the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southern Georgia, where average rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches are expected. Significant river flooding is possible beginning Monday and Tuesday in much of central Georgia and southern South Carolina where average rainfall of 3 to 6 inches and isolated 10 inch amounts are expected. Portions of these states within the southern Appalachians will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding. Farther north and west, Irma is expected to produce average amounts of 2 to 4 inches in parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee, northern South Carolina and western North Carolina, where isolated higher amounts and local flooding may occur. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 28.9N 82.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/1800Z 30.8N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/0600Z 33.0N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0600Z 35.5N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...2 to 4 ft Captiva to Anna Maria Island...3 to 5 ft North Miami Beach to Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...1 to 2 ft Anna Maria Island to Clearwater, including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 t 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the central and northern Florida peninsula, and are spreading into southern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions should spread into the eastern Florida Panhandle today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through today. Rainfall: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: The Florida Keys and southern Florida peninsula: additional 1 inch. Central Florida peninsula: additional 1 to 3 inches. Northern Florida peninsula and southern Georgia: additional 3 to 6 inches with storm total amounts of 8 to 15 inches. Central Georgia, eastern Alabama and southern South Carolina: 3 to inches, isolated 10 inches. Central Florida Panhandle, western Alabama, northern Mississippi, southern Tennessee, northern Georgia, northern South Carolina and western North Carolina: 2 to 4 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northeast Florida and southeast portions of Georgia and South Carolina through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Hurricane Jose remains active over the Atlantic Ocean as a Category 3 storm
Hurricane Jose is a Category 2 storm…with maximum sustained winds near 105 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Fluctuations in Hurricane Jose’s intensity are possible for the next several days, with possible strengthening in 4-5 days…according to the National Hurricane Center.
The latest track shows Jose doing a loop, and then heading more or less towards the Bahamas…still at hurricane strength.
According to the NHC:
Although Jose's satellite appearance is somewhat degraded due to the effects of northeasterly shear estimated to be near 25 kt, it has been able to maintain persistent deep convection over the center. A well-timed 0456Z GPM overpass helped to confirm that the center was on the north side of the cold cloud tops while also highlighting that an eye feature persists despite being obscured in conventional imagery. Subjective and objective satellite-based intensity estimates indicate that Jose continues on a weakening trend, and this supports lowering the initial intensity to 90 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be 335/09 kt as Jose continues to track around the western side of a mid-level ridge. As this ridge shifts to the southeast and south of Jose over the next 12 to 24 hours, its forward motion will slow, and the system will begin to move toward the northeast. On days 2 and 3 a ridge will begin to strengthen to the northwest of Jose, driving the system toward the southeast. By day 4 the ridge will move to a position north of Jose, which will gradually accelerate Jose toward the west-northwest through day 5. The expectation is that Jose will complete a small clockwise loop over the open waters of the western Atlantic the next couple of days. Despite the complex forecast track, this general solution is shared by all the reliable model guidance. The official track forecast is shifted slightly north from the previous one due to a northward shift in the ECMWF guidance, and is close to the GFEX consensus model. The northeasterly shear currently over Jose will shift to the northwest and will ease a little, but remain strong enough to keep Jose on a weakening trend through day 3. Although SSTs in the area are warm enough to support an intense hurricane, a slow-moving and looping Jose will likely move over its own cold wake around day 3, as seen in HWRF guidance. On days 4 and 5, Jose will move toward warmer water while the shear relaxes, and there is a potential for reintensification. The latest intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus, but it is more aggressive in weakening Jose than the SHIPS model, which is not accounting for interaction with the cold wake. A 1222Z ASCAT pass sampled Jose nearly perfectly, and the 34/50 kt wind radii were adjusted based on this data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 24.4N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 25.8N 69.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 26.8N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 27.0N 67.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 26.3N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 24.5N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 25.0N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 26.5N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Jose will affect portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to produce high surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)
1.) A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to move west-northwestward for the next two days and then turn northward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 11L (Irma)
For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.