Tropical Cyclone 11L (Irma) is located about 80 miles south-southeast of Naples, Florida
Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 300 miles northwest of the Northern Leeward Islands
Hurricane Irma has moved through Key West…as a dangerous Category 4 Major Hurricane
Irma will make a direct hit to Florida today as a major hurricane, with a devastating storm surge moving over parts of Florida…followed by damaging winds as the storm moves up through the rest of the state.
Here’s the NWS Looping Radar Images from Key West, Florida
Damaging wind damage and flooding will eventually occur over parts of central and north Florida, Georgia and the Carolina’s.
The National Weather Service is stating that areas in the hurricane warning areas may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Long term animation…showing the hurricane moving into and through the Caribbean Islands…up to the current time.
Here’s the current location of Hurricane Irma…with additional information
According to the NHC, Irma was the strongest storm ever in the Atlantic (not counting those that reached the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico)…and it came close to the all-time record hurricane wind speed of 190 mph.
Here’s the NWS 5-day Rainfall Outlook for Florida and the southeast United States
Hurricane Irma continues its onslaught towards Florida, and into the southeast United States. Several records were broken, and according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach…the following relate to Irma’s winds:
> Irma had sustained winds of 185 mph for 37 hours, the longest any tropical cyclone around the world has maintained that intensity. The previous record was 24 hours, during Super Typhoon Haiyan in the northwest Pacific in 2013.
> Irma’s 185 mph winds were also the highest on record for a storm in the Atlantic Ocean (not counting the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico).
> When the entire Atlantic Basin is included, Irma is tied with the Florida Keys / Labor Day hurricane (1935), Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) for second-highest winds on record. Only Hurricane Allen had greater winds of 190 mph in 1980.
> At 185 mph, it was the strongest storm on record to impact the Leeward Islands. The Okeechobee Hurricane (1928) and David (1979) were the previous strongest at 160 mph.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 128 kt in the northeastern eyewall, along with surface wind estimates of 110-115 kt from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. In addition, the aircraft data shows that the central pressure has fallen to 928 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt, again making Irma a Category 4 hurricane. Irma has made its long-awaited turn, with the initial motion now 325/7. For the next 36-48 h, the cyclone will be steered generally north-northwestward with an increase in forward speed between a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf Coast states and the northern Gulf of Mexico. After that, the system should turn northwestward and then move somewhat erratically near the end of its life as it merges with the low. The tightly-clustered track guidance has changed little since the last advisory, and the new NHC forecast is very close to the previous one. The eye should move across the Lower Florida Keys in the next few hours. After that, the hurricane's track almost parallel to the west coast of Florida makes it very difficult to pinpoint exactly where Irma will cross the Florida Gulf coast. Given current trends, some additional strengthening could occur during the next several hours. However, vertical wind shear is increasing over Irma, and the shear is expected to become strong within 24 h. This, combined with land interaction, should cause at least a steady weakening from 12-36 h. The new intensity forecast is slightly lower than that of the previous advisory at those times, but it still calls for Irma to be a major hurricane at its closest approach to the Tampa Bay area. A faster weakening is likely after Irma moves across the Florida Panhandle and starts to merge with the aforementioned upper-level low, and the new forecast follows the trend of the previous one in calling for the system to decay to a remnant low by 72 h and to dissipate completely by 120 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected bring life-threatening wind and storm surge to the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane today, and these conditions will spread into central and northwestern Florida tonight and Monday. Preparations in the Florida Keys and southwest Florida should be complete since hurricane-force winds are spreading into that area. 2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding along much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation. 3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward through much of Georgia and portions of South Carolina and Alabama. 4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated amounts of 25 inches are expected over the Florida Keys through Sunday evening. Through Monday, Irma is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 8 to 15 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches across the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia, while across the rest of Georgia, eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western South Carolina, and western North Carolina, a total of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 10 inches are expected. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Through Tuesday, Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain into the Tennessee Valley, where an average of 2 to 5 inches with isolated higher amounts is forecast across eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee. This includes some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. Residents throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 24.1N 81.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 25.4N 82.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 27.8N 82.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 30.5N 84.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 32.7N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/0600Z 35.5N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 14/0600Z 37.5N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys... 5 to 10 ft Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay... 5 to 8 ft North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay... 3 to 5 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...2 to 4 ft North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through this morning. Hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of the Florida Keys, and should spread northward over the remainder of the Keys and the southern Florida peninsula during the next several hours. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Northwestern Bahamas today. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Western Cuba...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. The Florida Keys...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. The southern Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. The remainder of the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. The rest of Georgia, eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across southern, central, and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula. THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye moves away. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Hurricane Jose remains active over the Atlantic Ocean as a major Category 4 storm
Hurricane Jose is a Category 4 storm…with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Fluctuations in Hurricane Jose’s intensity are possible for the next day or so, the National Hurricane Center said…and the storm is expected to gradually weaken thereafter.
According to the NHC:
Jose remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with a 15 n mi wide eye continuing to be surrounded a solid ring of deep convection. Little significant change in the overall satellite appearance has been observed since a Hurricane Hunter plane sampled the cyclone earlier in the night, and the initial intensity remains unchanged at 115 kt. The initial motion is 310/14 kt, with Jose's track through the first 24 hours being driven by a mid-level ridge located to the north-northeast of the cyclone. After this time, the steering pattern is expected to become rather dynamic, leading to a 5-day forecast that shows Jose making a small anticyclonic loop over the open waters of the western Atlantic. This occurs as the ridge shifts to the east of Jose from 36 to 48 hours, leading to a reduction in forward speed, and a gradual turn toward the north. A turn toward the east and southeast is expected on days 3 and 4, with an even slower forward motion, as the ridge weakens and moves south of the system. Late in the forecast period, the ridge is expected to build to the northwest and then north of Jose, leading to a gradual acceleration toward the west, and a reduction in the shear. With such a complex steering pattern expected, it comes as no surprise that the track guidance diverges significantly in the latter forecast periods. The updated forecast is close to the previous one, lies close to the FSSE, and is in between the GFS and ECMWF, which are more than 250 miles apart on day 5. The shear over Jose is currently analyzed to be near 10 kt, but north to northeasterly shear is forecast to increase in the short term and remain relatively strong through 48 hours due to Jose moving closer to a building ridge to its northwest. This will lead to a weakening trend, despite the system remaining over SSTs near 29 Celsius. The official intensity forecast is nudged down ever so slightly from the previous one through day 3, but remains higher than the SHIPS model, due to the ECMWF and GFS models maintaining a more intense system. The intensity prediction on days 4 and 5 remains unchanged due to forecast environmental uncertainties at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 20.8N 64.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 22.2N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 24.2N 67.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 25.6N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 26.5N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 26.3N 67.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 25.0N 66.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 24.5N 70.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and the northern coast of Puerto Rico, and will begin to affect Hispaniola, portions of the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)
1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the system moves generally northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 11L (Irma)
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