Tropical Cyclone 11L (Irma) is located about 225 miles south of Miami, Florida
Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 160 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Katia) is located about 145 miles south of Tampico, Mexico
Hurricane Irma is moving through portions of Cuba, as an extremely dangerous Category 4 Major Hurricane
Long term animation…showing the hurricane moving into and through the Caribbean Islands…up to the current time.
Here’s the current location of Hurricane Irma…with additional information
According to the NHC, Irma is the strongest storm ever in the Atlantic (not counting those that reached the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico)…and it came close to the all-time record hurricane wind speed of 190 mph.
Hurricane Irma is now blasting through parts of the Bahamas and Cuba….as a Category 5 hurricane.
Hurricane warnings have also been issued for portions of the Bahamas and Cuba…while watches and warnings have been issued for parts of Florida as well.
Irma will likely make a direct hit on South Florida this weekend as at least a Category 4 hurricane, if not 5…while parts of Georgia and the Carolina’s could then be struck by Irma early next week.
Potential Impact Timing
- Turks and Caicos: Conditions slowly improving Friday
- Bahamas: Friday-this weekend arriving from east to west; hurricane-force winds should spread into the northwest Bahamas by Saturday; slow improvement in the southeast Bahamas by Saturday
- Cuba: Now through Saturday; conditions improving Sunday
- Florida: Saturday-Sunday, lingering into early Monday in north Florida; hurricane-force winds may arrive in South Florida and the Florida Keys by Saturday night
- Georgia-Carolinas: Late Sunday-Monday
Here’s the NWS 5-day Rainfall Outlook for Florida and the southeast United States
Hurricane Irma continues its onslaught towards Florida, and into the southeast United States. Several records have already been broken, and according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach…the following relate to Irma’s winds:
> Irma had sustained winds of 185 mph for 37 hours, the longest any tropical cyclone around the world has maintained that intensity. The previous record was 24 hours, during Super Typhoon Haiyan in the northwest Pacific in 2013.
> Irma’s 185 mph winds were also the highest on record for a storm in the Atlantic Ocean (not counting the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico).
> When the entire Atlantic Basin is included, Irma is tied with the Florida Keys / Labor Day hurricane (1935), Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) for second-highest winds on record. Only Hurricane Allen had greater winds of 190 mph in 1980.
> At 185 mph, it was the strongest storm on record to impact the Leeward Islands. The Okeechobee Hurricane (1928) and David (1979) were the previous strongest at 160 mph.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
The eye of Irma has been moving over the islands along the north coast of Cuba, and satellite imagery along with preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the hurricane has weakened. The initial intensity is reduced to 135 kt, and this may be generous. The initial motion is now 285/10. Irma is moving along the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge, which is about to weaken due to a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the southeastern United States. The track guidance is in good agreement that Irma should continue west-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest that would take the center parallel to the west coast of the Florida peninsula. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should turn northwestward and eventually stall as it interacts with the aforementioned trough. The track guidance has changed only slightly since the previous advisory. Thus the new forecast track follows the previous forecast in calling for Irma to move along the coast of Cuba, then over the Lower Florida Keys, and then over and near the Florida West coast. It should be noted that because of the hurricane's angle of approach to the west coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly where the center might move onshore. There is an opportunity for Irma to re-intensity as it crosses the warm waters of the Florida Straits. However, the large-scale models forecast significant westerly shear developing at about 24 h, and it is unclear how much strengthening could occur before then. The first part of the intensity forecast thus calls for little change in strength through 36 h, and Irma is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida. After that time, movement over land and strong shear should cause steady weakening, with Irma eventually decaying to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through tonight. 2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the center. 3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has increased, and 8 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in this area. This is a life-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from local officials. 4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida peninsula through Tuesday night. Irma will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 22.5N 78.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 22.9N 80.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 23.8N 81.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 25.4N 81.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 27.7N 82.4W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/0600Z 32.5N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/0600Z 35.5N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 14/0600Z 36.0N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...8 to 12 ft Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft Venice to Captiva...5 to 8 ft Suwannee River to Venice including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Ragged Island in the Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Central and Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas today, and in portions of southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys tonight and Sunday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in central and north Florida by Sunday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday night: Northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southern Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Western Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Florida Keys...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. The eastern Florida Panhandle...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...4 to 8 inches. Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast coast of the United States today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Hurricane Jose remains active over the Atlantic Ocean, is Category 4
Hurricane Jose is an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm…with maximum sustained winds near 145 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The storm sits east of the Leeward Islands and is forecast to move west-northwest into the Atlantic Ocean over the coming days.
The eye of Hurricane Irma passed over Barbuda, a tiny Caribbean island of about 1,800 residents Wednesday, destroying telecommunication systems and cell towers. The storm damaged about 95% of the buildings on the island…according to Prime Minister Gaston Browne.
Fluctuations in Hurricane Jose’s intensity are possible for the next day or so, the National Hurricane Center said…and the storm is expected to gradually weaken thereafter.
According to the NHC:
There has been some weakening of the inner core this morning, specifically, considerable warming of the cloud tops and partial erosion of the western portion of the eyewall. Indications from earlier microwave passes and radar imagery from the Leeward Island of Guadeloupe reveal the possibility of an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). Subsequently, the initial intensity is generously lowered to 130 kt for this advisory. An aircraft reconnaissance mission later this morning will provide a more accurate measure of Jose's intensity. Whether or not Jose completes the ERC cycle during the next several hours is uncertain. Regardless of the inner core structural transition, Jose is still forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as it closely approaches the northern Leeward Islands today. Statistical and dynamical intensity guidance show gradual weakening of the cyclone through day 5 as a result of increasing northerly shear and drier, more stable mid-tropospheric air associated with an approaching mid-latitude trough to the northwest of the cyclone. The official forecast is above all of the available guidance through 24 hours, then corresponds to the IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11 kt. The eye of Jose is expected to turn northwestward and pass just east of the northern Leeward Islands later today. Jose should slow down and turn north-northwestward in 72 hours in response to the aforementioned deep-layer mid-level trough. Large-scale models have come in alignment with the trough leaving Jose behind to meander in weaker mid-level westerly flow through day 5. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous package and is based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 17.5N 60.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 19.9N 63.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 21.5N 65.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 23.1N 67.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 25.7N 69.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 26.5N 67.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 26.4N 66.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by this morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by tonight. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning and tropical storm warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Depression 13L (Katia) has weakened…as it moved inland over Mexico
Here’s the Rainfall Outlook graphical map through Sunday.
According to the NHC:
Convection has substantially diminished with Katia, with satellite imagery showing a significantly degraded structure. In fact, it seems that the low-level circulation may be decoupled from the low center aloft now, as a distinct circulation in diminishing colder cloud tops moved more quickly off to the southwest. There was already evidence of this occurring from the recon flight earlier tonight. The initial position was determined via the circulation in warmer clouds in the lower troposphere on IR satellite. Katia is very close to the higher terrain of the Sierra Madre Mountains, and thus the forecast shows very little movement this morning as the increasingly shallow circulation would be less likely to propagate west through the mountainous areas. The initial intensity is set at 35 knots out of respect for the hurricane strength Dvorak fixes only nine hours ago, and the extent of tropical storm force winds sampled by the recon plane shortly thereafter, although this could be generous. The most likely location of tropical storm force winds would be away from the center and over the water or near the coast in the eastern semicircle of Katia's circulation. The wind field should continue to weaken this morning, and we show a dissipation of Katia by 18Z today. Although convection has generally diminished as of 09Z, lingering elevated levels of atmospheric moisture associated with Katia could continue to produce heavy rains in the region, which could lead to flash floods and mudslides even after Katia dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 20.3N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 20.2N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi, western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi. This rainfall will likely cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast should continue to decrease as the center dissipates and winds subside. SURF: Swells generated by Katia will begin to decrease along the coast of southeastern Mexico today. These swells may still cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)
1.) A tropical wave located several hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity has increased since yesterday, and some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
Tropical cyclone 11L (Irma)
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 13L (Katia)
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