Tropical Cyclone 11L (Irma) is located about 450 miles southeast of Miami, Florida
Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 480 miles east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Katia) is located about 165 miles east-southeast of of Tampico, Mexico
Hurricane Irma continues moving through the Caribbean Islands…as a extremely dangerous Category 4 Major Hurricane!
Long term animation…showing the hurricane moving into and through the Caribbean Islands…up to the current time.
Here’s the current location of Hurricane Irma…with additional information
As a Category 5, Irma ranks among the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded. Irma had sustained 185 mph winds for more than 24 hours, a record length of time for a hurricane in the Atlantic. Irma has been a Category 5 storm for more than two days…which is also nearing a new record as well.
According to the NHC, Irma is the strongest storm ever in the Atlantic (not counting those that reached the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico). And it’s not far off from the all-time record hurricane wind speed of 190 mph.
The threat of an impact in Florida over the weekend “continues to increase,” the NHC reported. The forecast will grow more certain in the next few days. And local officials are already preparing for the worst.
Hurricane Irma impacted parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti Thursday morning, threatening serious flooding…a day after leaving severe destruction and at least 10 dead across many Caribbean islands in its wake.
Here’s the NWS 5-day Rainfall Outlook for Florida and the southeast United States
Potential Impact Timing
- Dominican Republic/Haiti: Thursday
- Turks and Caicos: Late Thursday-Friday
- Bahamas: Friday-this weekend…tropical storm force winds may arrive as early as late Thursday
- Cuba: Friday-this weekend…tropical storm force winds will may arrive as early as Thursday night
- Southeast United States: This weekend into early next week…beginning in south Florida Saturday
Hurricane Irma continues its onslaught through the Caribbean towards Florida, and into the southeast United States. Several records have already been broken, and Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach has been tracking them…including this about Irma’s winds:
> Irma had sustained winds of 185 mph for 37 hours, the longest any tropical cyclone around the world has maintained that intensity. The previous record was 24 hours, during Super Typhoon Haiyan in the northwest Pacific in 2013.
> Irma’s 185 mph winds were also the highest on record for a storm in the Atlantic Ocean (not counting the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico).
> When the entire Atlantic Basin is included, Irma is tied with the Florida Keys / Labor Day hurricane (1935), Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) for second-highest winds on record. Only Hurricane Allen had greater winds of 190 mph in 1980.
> At 185 mph, it was the strongest storm on record to impact the Leeward Islands. The Okeechobee Hurricane (1928) and David (1979) were the previous strongest at 160 mph.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
Microwave images and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Irma is developing a concentric eyewall structure, and the plane reported an elliptical eye. The highest flight-level and SFMR winds measured by the aircraft were 146 kt and 139 kt, respectively, so the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 145 kt. Irma's central pressure has fallen a bit despite the slight reduction in winds, counterbalanced by an expansion of the hurricane-force wind field as observed by the plane. If Irma has developed concentric eyewalls, then some additional gradual weakening or fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next day or two, despite a seemingly favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment. The intensity models depict a very gradual decrease in Irma's maximum winds up until a possible landfall in Florida, but the hurricane is nonetheless expected to still be at or near category 4 strength at that time. After landfall, a fairly quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to land interaction and increased shear, although Irma's large wind field is likely to still produce hurricane-force winds over a large area. Irma continues to move west-northwestward at 290/14 kt, steered by the western extent of the subtropical ridge. Irma should maintain this trajectory but slow down during the next 36 hours, and then turn north-northwestward toward a break in the ridge by 72 hours. Although there was a westward shift in the 18Z GFS, this model's new track puts it very close to the previous NHC forecast. As such, no major changes to the NHC track were required on this forecast through 72 hours, and the projected path lies between the GFS and ECMWF, closest to the TVCN consensus and HCCA. After 72 hours, the models are showing a more pronounced turn toward the northwest when Irma interacts with a shortwave diving southeastward from the Central Plains, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly at the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas through Saturday. Heavy rainfall is still possible across portions of Hispaniola through Friday. Hurricane conditions will also spread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys through Saturday. 2. Severe hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning late Saturday. Irma could make landfall in southern Florida as a dangerous major hurricane, and bring life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts to much of the state. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for southern Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay, while Hurricane Watches have been issued northward into central Florida. 3. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for southern Florida and the Florida Keys. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of the Storm Surge Warning for portions of the central Florida coast. 4. There is a chance of direct impacts in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify the magnitude and location of these impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 21.3N 72.4W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 21.8N 74.4W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 76.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 22.9N 78.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 23.7N 79.9W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 27.2N 81.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0000Z 32.0N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 13/0000Z 35.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft Bonita Beach to Venice...3 to 5 ft Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 6 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area in Haiti tonight. Hurricane conditions are occurring on the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are spreading across the southeastern Bahamas and will move into the central Bahamas by early Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba late Friday and Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday, and in portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Sunday evening: Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands... additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 3 to 6 inches. Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...additional 1 to 2 inches. Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas...12 to 16 inches, isolated 25 inches. Eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Lower Florida Keys...2 to 5 inches. Central Florida into northeast Florida and coastal Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and in some areas mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Hurricane Jose remains active over the open tropical Atlantic Ocean…and has attained Category 3
Tropical Cyclone Jose has become the fifth hurricane of the 2017 season.
Hurricane Jose continues to strengthen in the Atlantic…and is expected to become a major hurricane (winds of 111 mph or greater) on Friday.
Beginning this weekend an increase in wind shear, associated with the outflow of Hurricane Irma…should limit further intensification.
A recent NHC statement: “JOSE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY…WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
According to the NHC:
Jose's satellite presentation has improved overnight. Cold cloud tops of -75C now surround the clearer and more distinct warming eye. The initial intensity is increased to 110 kt and is based on a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity T-numbers and recent cloud pattern trends. Some increase in strength is still possible during the next day or so while the cyclone remains in a marginally conducive environment. Through the remainder of the forecast period, however, gradual weakening is expected due to an increase in northerly wind shear and an intruding drier more stable thermodynamic environment. The NHC forecast is close to the HWRF model through 48 hours, and then closely follows the IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt. Large-scale models are quite similar on a subtropical ridge steering Jose west-northwestward during the next 48 hours, placing the cyclone very near the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Saturday. Through day 5, Jose is expected to move northwestward and then northward in response to a large amplitude mid-tropospheric trough approaching the tropical cyclone from the northwest. The new NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous package and is based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 16.0N 55.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 18.5N 61.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 20.0N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 23.5N 67.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 26.4N 68.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 27.9N 67.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch areas by Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life- threatening flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Hurricane 13L (Katia) remains active in the Gulf of Mexico
Hurricane Katia remained in place off the Mexican Gulf coast Thursday, although is expected to gain strength before it approached land Friday night, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A Category 1 hurricane, Katia remained east of the port of Tampico, with sustained winds of 80 miles per hour, and may be close to major hurricane strength by the time it impacts the east coast of Mexico, the NHC said.
Category 1 is the NHC’s weakest hurricane designation. Category 5 is the strongest…storms of Category 3 and above are defined as major hurricanes.
The storm is a “small tropical cyclone,” the National Hurricane Center said, with hurricane-force winds extending out only 10 miles from the center. Tropical-storm force winds extend out 45 miles.
Katia was expected to begin moving again and turn southward, and is forecast to hit the state of Veracruz by early Saturday.
Katia is very slow moving and could drop excessive rain on areas that have been saturated in recent weeks, Luis Felipe Puente, head of Mexico’s national emergency services, told domestic television Wednesday.
Here’s the Rainfall Outlook graphical map through Sunday.
The long-range forecast a trajectory that would keep the storm away from the United States
According to the NHC:
Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a GPM microwave composite image indicate improved banding over the western portion of the circulation and the earlier ragged eye presentation has become much more distinct. Subsequently, Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have increased along with the Objective ADT T-number, and the initial intensity is bumped up to 80 kt. Further strengthening is possible, and Katia could be near major hurricane intensity prior to landfall Saturday morning. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains after the 48 hour period. The initial motion estimate is west-southwestward, or 250/3 kt. A continued slow west-southwestward motion under the influence of a mid-latitude high extending east from Texas is forecast until the cyclone makes landfall and quickly dissipates. The official forecast has changed little from the previous one, and is based primarily on the HFIP Corrected Consensus multi-model. In addition to the hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect eastern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.3N 95.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.0N 96.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 20.3N 97.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 19.3N 98.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, and Puebla. Katia is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over southern Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosi, western Hidalgo, eastern Queretaro, and southern Veracruz through Saturday evening. Isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are possible in northern Veracruz, eastern Hidalgo, Puebla, and San Luis Potosi. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by tonight or early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions expected within the tropical storm warning areas by later today. SURF: Swells generated by Katia will continue to affect portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)
A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa by tomorrow morning. Environmental conditions are only expected to support gradual development of this system through early next week as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Tropical cyclone 11L (Irma)
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 13L (Katia)
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