Tropical Cyclone 11L (Irma) is located about 165 miles southeast of Grand Turk Island
Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 815 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Katia) is located about 210 miles east of Tampico, Mexico
Hurricane Irma is moving through the Caribbean Islands…as a extremely dangerous Category 5 Major Hurricane!
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Irma struck some northern Caribbean islands this morning…as one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. It’s now expected to hit parts of the British Virgin Islands and perhaps some areas of northern Puerto Rico later in the day.
Irma’s eye, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (gusts 220 mph), impacted Barbuda Wednesday morning…before moving over Saint Martin and Anguilla.
Barbuda, home to about 1,600 people, was “so badly damaged that there is no communication” from the island, said Keithley Meade, director of a meteorological office in Antigua and Barbuda.
The Category 5 hurricane is “potentially catastrophic,” the National Hurricane Center said. Besides devastating winds, the center warns of high storm surges that could run over low lying structures near shore.
Rain from Irma began hitting parts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico early Wednesday, the National Weather Service office in San Juan reports. Here’s the looping radar image from Puerto Rico.
Irma Thursday into Friday should be near the Turks and Caicos islands and the southeastern Bahamas, where storm surges of up to 20 feet are possible, the hurricane center said.
Though Irma’s path is still uncertain, forecasters have said it could turn toward Florida over the weekend, and officials there are ordering some evacuations and shutting down schools.
GPM’s 3-D Flyby Animation of Irma
Youtube Video showing a Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying into the eye of Hurricane Irma
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
Irma has become a little less organized during the past few hours. Data from an Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0500 UTC indicated that the central pressure had risen to 921 mb and that the winds had decreased both at the 700 mb flight-level and in surface estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. Since that time, the eye has become cloud filled and the central convection has become somewhat ragged. The initial intensity is lowered to 155 kt, and this could be a little generous. The next aircraft is scheduled to reach Irma around 1200 UTC. The initial motion is 290/15. The hurricane is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and for the next 48 h or so this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in the forward speed. After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough digging into the eastern United States is expected to create a break in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward. The timing of the turn is the most important question and one still filled with uncertainty. The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern portion of the Florida Peninsula. The GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States. The new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into southern South Carolina by 120 h. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively. Irma should remain in warm-water, and a low shear environment for about the next three days, and thus is expected to remain a strong hurricane, most likely Category 5 or 4. Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the time due to internal eyewall replacement cycles. The large-scale models suggest that shear could increase starting at about 72 hr. However, due to the uncertainty as to whether this will happen, the intensity forecast keeps Irma at category 4 strength until landfall in Florida. The 96-120 h points now have a lower intensity due to the forecast of shear and land interaction, but Irma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the southeastern United States. Since Irma is moving away from Puerto Rico and the radars there, the hourly position estimates are discontinued after this advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the northern coast of Hispaniola today, the Turks and Caicos tonight, and the Bahamas tonight through Saturday. 2. A hurricane watch is in effect much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday. 3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the weekend and early next week continues to increase. Hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula later this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 20.0N 68.3W 155 KT 180 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 20.7N 70.5W 150 KT 175 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.7N 73.1W 145 KT 165 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 75.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 22.8N 77.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 24.5N 80.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 28.5N 80.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northwestern Bahamas...4 to 7 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later today with tropical storm conditions expected within the next several hours. These conditions will spread into the Central Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...An additional 2 to 4 inches. Much of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Eastern and Central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Southern Haiti...1 to 4 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and they should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Hurricane Jose remains active over the open tropical Atlantic Ocean…and is now strengthening
Tropical Cyclone Jose has become the fifth hurricane of the 2017 season.
TC Jose formed Tuesday in the central tropical Atlantic, more than 1,000 miles east of Hurricane Irma…and thus far is following Irma’s path westward toward the Caribbean.
There were no coastal watches or warnings in effect, though forecasters warned the Leeward Islands to monitor the storm.
The NHC forecast track shows Jose just offshore of the Lesser Antilles Saturday afternoon and Puerto Rico Sunday as a hurricane, before it makes a turn toward the northwest. Jose’s preliminary forecast track has it moving north of Irma’s path…in the general direction of North Carolina.
According to the NHC:
Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery indicates some improvement of the inner core during the past several hours. The earlier identified banding eye feature in microwave imagery appears to be closing off in the west side. Based on the overall improvement of the cloud pattern and a consensus of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt. Further strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours. After that time, increasing northerly shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane Irma should inhibit further intensification and subsequently, cause the cyclone to begin weakening. The intensity forecast is based primarily on the IVCN consensus model and is close to the HWRF through 48 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt, within the mid-tropospheric flow produced by the western extent of a subtropical high to the north. Jose should continue on this general west-northwestward track through the 36 hour period. Afterward, the ridge to the north is forecast to weaken in response to a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching from the northeast. This transition in the synoptic steering pattern should influence Jose in a more northwestward motion through the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is slightly to the left of the previous advisory beyond 48 hours, and is based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected consensus model and the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.8N 49.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.2N 51.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 15.8N 54.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 57.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 17.2N 59.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 19.7N 63.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 23.0N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 26.4N 69.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
Hurricane 13L (Katia) remains active in the Gulf of Mexico
TC Katia is not expected to move much over the next few days and is currently east of Tampico, Mexico.
Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible in eastern Mexico late in the week into the weekend.
Katia is currently expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rainfall over northern Veracruz, with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. Over far southern Tamaulipas, northeastern Puebla and southern Veracruz rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches is anticipated. Here’s the Rainfall Outlook graphical map through Sunday.
The long-range forecast a trajectory that would keep the storm away from the United States
According to the NHC:
Katia has not changed appreciably during the past several hours with a small central dense overcast and a curved banding feature in the northeastern quadrant. Satellite estimates are about the same as earlier, so the initial wind speed will stay at 70 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the hurricane in a few hours to get a better estimate of the current intensity. Katia is forecast to be over very warm waters with decreasing shear for the next 24-36 hours. Thus strengthening is expected as long as the center remains offshore. It is still puzzling why most of the guidance don't intensify this much, but since the global models continue to show significant deepening, the official forecast will stay on the high side of the guidance. The hurricane is essentially stationary, waiting for a ridge to build over the northwestern Gulf to steer Katia southwestward at a faster pace. Most of the guidance are in agreement on this track, although the UKMET is a notable outlier showing more of a westward motion. The only significant change from the previous advisory is to speed up the track of Katia as it approaches the coast. Given the latest track forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the previous Hurricane Watch area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 21.5N 94.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 21.5N 94.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.2N 95.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 20.8N 95.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 20.2N 97.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0600Z 19.5N 99.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over northern Veracruz, and 2 to 5 inches over far southern Tamaulipas, northeast Puebla, and southern Veracruz through Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in northern Veracruz. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions expected within the tropical warning areas by midday Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Katia are expected to affect portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)
Tropical cyclone 11L (Irma)
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 13L (Katia)
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