Tropical Cyclone 11L (Irma) is located about 50 miles east-southeast of Barbuda
Tropical Cyclone 12L (Jose) is located about 1330 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Cyclone 13L is located about 95 miles east of Tampico, Mexico
Hurricane Irma is moving into the Caribbean Islands…as a extremely dangerous Category 5 Major Hurricane!
Long term animation…showing the hurricane moving into the Caribbean Islands.
Here’s a close up view of Hurricane Irma’s eye
Here’s the looping radar image from Guadeloupe / Martinque
“Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, although Irma is forecast to remain a powerful Category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days, the NHC said…it’s still too early to tell the exact impact Irma will have on the United States.”
“Irma became an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane,” the NHC said today, adding that it could gain even more strength. “Preparations should be rushed to completion in the hurricane warning area.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Parts of Hispañola, the Bahamas, and Cuba are also in the path of Irma late this week. Here’s a graphic showing these alerts.
The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are forecast to see deteriorating conditions throughout the day on Wednesday with the worst of the rain and wind arriving Wednesday night.
Potential Impact Timing
- Leeward Islands: Late Today-Wednesday; tropical storm-force winds will arrive later today.
- Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands: Wednesday- early Thursday; tropical storm force winds will arrive tonight
- Dominican Republic/Haiti: Thursday; tropical storm force winds will arrive Wednesday night
- Turks and Caicos: Late Thursday-Friday
- Bahamas: Friday-this weekend
- Cuba: Friday-this weekend
- Southeast United States: This weekend into early next week, beginning in south Florida Saturday
While it is still too soon to narrow down specifics on the exact path of Irma’s center and eyewall, there’s a chance of this major hurricane striking at least part of South Florida, including the Florida Keys…this weekend.
Residents of Texas and Louisiana are still trying to rebound from the catastrophic effects of Hurricane Harvey, which struck Texas as a Category 4 hurricane…dumping several feet of rain, destroying thousands of homes and businesses. Harvey has killed an estimated 50 people and displaced more than 1 million others.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
The satellite view of Irma remains quite spectacular, with an extremely well-defined eye and a large, symmetrical CDO. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure had fallen at about 1 mb per hour since this morning, although very recently the deepening trend has leveled off. Based on SFMR-observed winds from the aircraft, the current intensity remains at 160 kt. The Meteo-France radar imagery suggests a concentric eyewall structure and observations from the aircraft hinted at a secondary wind maximum. If an eyewall replacement becomes more definitive, this would likely halt additional strengthening, and could even lead to some weakening. The official intensity forecast is near or above the model consensus. Given the favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment, Irma is likely to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next few days. Latest center fixes from satellite imagery and the aircraft indicate that Irma is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is expected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the next couple of days. A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through Friday. In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward. Some of the dynamical models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier. The official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, on Wednesday. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, with hurricane watches for Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from Wednesday night through Friday. 3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. 4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week and this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 17.4N 61.1W 160 KT 185 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.1W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.5W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 21.0N 71.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 22.0N 76.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 23.2N 79.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 25.0N 81.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning within a couple of hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday night. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and St. Croix...2 to 4 inches Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations Wednesday through Saturday: Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Storm Jose has recently spun up over the open tropical Atlantic Ocean…and is forecast to become a hurricane Thursday morning
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Tropical Storm Jose developed late Tuesday morning in the open Atlantic, with winds at 40 mph…and a movement to the west northwest at 13 mph.
The long-range forecast eventually takes Jose north by the weekend, a trajectory that would take the storm away from the U.S.
According to the NHC:
Jose continues to gradually strengthen. Geostationary and microwave satellite images indicate that the center of the system is located on the north side of the main area of deep convection. Fragmented curved bands also exist to the north of the center. The initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt, based on a recent ASCAT pass. This wind speed estimate is also in agreement with a T3.0/45 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB and similar ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Satellite fixes suggest that Jose is moving westward at 12 kt. A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 3 days while Jose moves in the flow on the south and southwest sides of a subtropical high. After that time, a slower northwestward motion is forecast when Jose moves into a weakness in the ridge. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there is a considerable amount of spread in the 4 to 5 day period on when and where Jose makes the northwest turn. The NHC official track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus models. The tropical storm is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening during the next few days, and Jose will likely become a hurricane in about 24 hours and could be near major hurricane strength by 72 hours. Thereafter, an increase in northerly shear and some drier air should end the strengthening trend and cause some weakening. The NHC intensity follows the ICON and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 12.3N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 12.8N 43.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 13.5N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 14.2N 49.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 14.9N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 16.7N 57.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 19.2N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 22.4N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
Tropical Depression 13L remains active in the Gulf of Mexico…and is forecast to become tropical storm Katia
Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours…although Katia isn’t expected to reach hurricane strength before landfall along the Mexican coast
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Tropical Depression 13L developed late Tuesday afternoon in the southwest Gulf, with winds at 35 mph…and a movement to the east at 2 mph.
The long-range forecast a trajectory that would keep the storm away from the United States
According to the NHC:
Convection continues near the center of the depression, although it isn't very curved at this time. Overall, westerly shear is keeping most of the thunderstorm activity in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Dvorak estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed remains 30 kt. Global models suggest that the westerly shear should gradually subside over the next few days while the depression moves over very warm water. This is a recipe for strengthening, and the official forecast is similar to the previous advisory. More guidance members are showing the cyclone eventually becoming a hurricane than the last cycle, so the peak intensity is bumped up 5 kt, staying a bit above the model consensus. Microwave data indicate the depression continues to drift eastward. The cyclone should gradually turn southward and southwestward as high pressure builds near Texas, along with an increase in forward speed forecast on Friday. The guidance has come into somewhat better agreement on the track forecast during the past 6 hours, and little change was made to the previous advisory. The NHC forecast remains on the southern side of the guidance, since models in that part of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tend to have a northward bias. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.2N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 22.1N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 21.8N 95.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 21.5N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 21.2N 95.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 20.8N 95.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 19.4N 98.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Tropical cyclone 12L (Jose)
Tropical cyclone 11L (Irma)
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 13L
For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.