Tropical Cyclone 09L (Harvey) is located about 30 miles south-southwest of Memphis, Tennessee – Final Advisory
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Irma) is located about 775 miles west of Cabo Verde Islands
PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions. precipitation accumulations for dissipating Tropical Depression Harvey
Tropical Depression Harvey has moved out of Texas, with heavy rains spreading northeast through the lower Mississippi Valley, and on into the Tennessee Valley…and has been given its Final Advisory
Harvey was a Category 4 hurricane when it made landfall for the first time late this past Friday.
Harvey was heading inland as a weakening tropical depression today, although the death toll from its impact rose again, as authorities in Houston began a recovery that could last months.
The storm has killed at least 35 people thus far, and the death toll was rising as bodies were found in receding waters. Some 32,000 people were forced into shelters around the U.S. energy hub of Houston since Harvey came ashore on Friday…as the most powerful hurricane to hit Texas in a half-century.
“At the end of the day, this is likely to be the largest natural disaster by property damage in history,” said former Houston Mayor Bill White.
Here’s a looping animation…showing Harvey recent location and movement
Here’s a current satellite image
Here’s a looping satellite image of this system
Here’s a graphic showing the rainfall outlook
Here’s a graphic showing Watches and Warnings…along with rainfall
The NHC advisory #45 shows sustained winds are 20 mph
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 90.5 WEST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK TAKES HARVEY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, AND MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A POST-TROPICAL LOW.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:
RAINFALL:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM WESTERN TO CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND WESTERN TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA, SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE TO WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE RAINS WILL ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOODING RISK ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN AND AROUND HOUSTON, BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR/ORANGE, AND EASTWARD AROUND THE LOUISIANA BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY MAY ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND INCREASED RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.
SELECTED PRELIMINARY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH
4 PM CDT Thursday
...ALABAMA... GASQUE 8.00 BONSECOUR 7.91 GRAND BAY 10.5 NE 6.81 FOLEY 7.4 SW 6.44 ELBERTA 6.31 ORANGE BEACH 6.03 TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 6.01 MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT 5.83 MOBILE/BATES FIELD 5.83 FAIRHOPE 5.77 GULF SHORES 5.60 SUMMERDALE 4.73 MONTROSE 4.52 DAPHNE 0.4 SW 4.42 FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL 3W 4.35 SONNY CALLAHAN ARPT 4.32 ...ARKANSAS... MAMMOTH SPRINGS 2 SSE 6.42 HARRISBURG 4.33 STUTTGART MUNI ARPT 3.73 FELSENTHAL 7 NNW 3.21 CROSSETT 0.9 S 2.79 JONESBORO MUNI ARPT 2.01 ...FLORIDA... PENSACOLA REGIONAL AIRPORT 7.95 MILTON 7.33 UNIVERSITY WEST 2.0 WNW 6.36 CRESTVIEW - SIKES ARPT 5.63 PACE 5.35 GULF BREEZE 5.28 PANAMA CITY ARPT 4.03 ...GEORGIA... COLUMBUS METRO ARPT 2.04 ATLANTA RGNL ARPT - FALCON FIELD 1.70 ...LOUISIANA... BAYOU CONWAY 22.25 BAYOU TORO NEAR TORO 20.62 KENNER GULLY AT MARK LEBLEU 18.23 CALCASIEU RVR AT OLD TOWN BA 18.15 W-14 AT JOE SPEARS RD 17.85 W-6 AT WARD LINE ROAD 17.24 MOSS BLUFF 16.70 BELFIELD DITCH AT BELFIELD ROAD 16.37 IOWA 0.9 ESE 16.36 GOLDSMITH CANAL AT GOOS RD 16.02 BAYOU ARSENE AT HECKER ROAD 15.84 GOLDSMITH CANAL AT HWY 171 15.74 LAKE CHARLES 11.5 SSW 15.41 RAGLEY 5.0 SE 15.18 EB L-14 AT IOWA BASEBALL FIELD 14.85 INDIAN BAYOU AT COFFEY ROAD 14.10 TOPSY 4 NNW 14.08 LACASSINE BAYOU AT LORRAIN BRIDGE 13.04 ZAVALLA 2 ENE 12.87 SULPHUR 2.2 E 12.54 BON WIER 2 ENE 12.44 HACKBERRY 5 SSE 12.33 CONTRABAND BAYOU AT 18TH STREET 12.28 WELSH 0.7 W 12.26 W-4 AT NELSON ROAD 12.12 GILLIS 4 WSW 12.11 FORT POLK 11.96 BUXTON CREEK AT DOUGLAS ROAD 11.21 CHOUPIQUE BAYOU AT HWY 90 11.02 LACASSINE NATIONAL 2 ENE 10.55 BAYOU DINDE AT PICARD ST 9.76 LEBLEU SETTLEMENT 2 WNW 9.64 FORKED ISLAND 5 ENE 9.37 BUNDICK CREEK NEAR DE RIDDER 9.26 PECAN ISLAND 2 E 9.14 LAKE CHARLES MUNI ARPT 9.08 NEW IBERIA/ACADIANA 8.92 VERNON - FTS 8.77 LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT 7.14 NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT 5.88 NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 5.33 ENGLAND AFB/ALEXANDRIA 4.84 SLIDELL AIRPORT 3.82 BATON ROUGE/RYAN MUNI ARPT 3.17 ...MISSISSIPPI... GAUTIER 8.27 SANDHILL CRANE - FTS 7.90 GRAND BAY 6.06 OCEAN SPRINGS 3.6 ESE 4.61 MOSS POINT - TRENT LOTT INTL ARPT 4.55 PASCAGOULA 4.54 PEARLINGTON 4.4 N 3.99 JOURDAN RIVER NEAR KILN 3.35 TANGIPAHOA RIVER AT OSYKA 3.15 TYLERTOWN 9 WNW 3.08 NATCHEZ/HARDY 2.91 KEESLER AFB/BILOXI 2.55 GULFPORT-BILOXI 2.40 ...TENNESSEE... MEMPHIS INTL ARPT 1.25 JACKSON MCKELLAR-SIPES RGNL ARPT 1.12 ...TEXAS... CEDAR BAYOU AT FM 1942 51.88 CLEAR CREEK AT I-45 49.40 DAYTON 0.2 E 49.23 MARYS CREEK AT WINDING ROAD 49.20 BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 47.35 SANTA FE 0.7 S 46.70 PASADENA 4.4 WNW 45.74 HORSEPEN CREEK AT BAY AREA BLVD 45.60 SOUTH HOUSTON 4.0 SSW 44.91 BERRY BAYOU AT FOREST OAKS BLVD 44.80 BERRY BAYOU AT NEVADA 44.44 FRIENDSWOOD 2.5 NNE 44.05 LITTLE VINCE BAYOU AT BURKE RD 43.52 HOUSTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 43.38 LEAGUE CITY 2.7 NE 43.32 WEBSTER 0.4 NW 43.32 LNVA CHEEK CANAL AT DITCH 407 43.11 LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU AT 8TH ST 42.32 ARMAND BAYOU AT GENOA-RED BLUFF RD 42.16 TURKEY CREEK AT FM 1959 42.12 BOONDOCKS RD AT TAYLORS BA 41.86 ARMAND BAYOU AT PASADENA LAKE 41.20 TAYLOR LAKE AT NASA ROAD 1 40.44 SH 124 AT HILLEBRANDT BAYOU 38.18 MAHAW BAYOU AT ENGLIN RD 37.75 JACINTO CITY 37.60 HUNTING BAYOU AT LOOP 610 EAST 37.00 TELEPSEN 36.60 MAHAW BAYOU AT BRUSH ISLAND ROAD 36.53 FIRST COLONY 4 WSW 36.34 BEAMER DITCH HUGHES RD 36.32 LA PORTE 1 N 36.24 BAYTOWN 2 NW 35.64 MOUNT HOUSTON 35.60 HOUSTON/CLOVER FIELD 33.37 HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 31.26 KATY 6 NE 31.23 HOUSTON/WILL HOBBY 27.88 HOUSTON/D.W. HOOKS 27.01 GALVESTON/SCHOLES 22.84 COLLEGE STATION 2 SSW 19.64 VICTORIA 3.8 NW 15.60 AUSTIN 4 SSE 10.28 AUSTIN/MUELLER MUNI ARPT 10.07 CORPUS CHRISTI 3.6 S 6.23 ...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE EVENT... ...TEXAS... PORT ARANSAS 2 ENE 132 COPANO VILLAGE 1 ENE 125 LAMAR 2 SSW 110 ROCKPORT 1 S 108 TAFT 5 NNE 90 MAGNOLIA BEACH 8 ESE 79 EDNA 73 FLOUR BLUFF 4 ESE 72 ARANSAS PASS 7 SE 71 CLEAR LAKE SHORES 1 WSW 71 BRAZOS 451 70 PALACIOS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 69 CORPUS CHRISTI NAS 5 SE 65 GANADO 7 S 64 LA WARD 64 BAYOU VISTA 13 E 61 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 58 QUINTANA 1 NE 58 SUGAR LAND MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 58 JONES CREEK 9 SW 55 LA MARQUE 2 E 55 FREEPORT 1 ESE 54 SAN LEON 19 E 54 MISSOURI CITY 1 SE 53 SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT 53 WEBSTER 53 BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 52 GONZALES AIRPORT 52 NASSAU BAY 52 TEXAS CITY 4 ENE 52
PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, Precipitation Accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 10L (Irma)
Hurricane Irma remains active in the Atlantic west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and is now a Category 3 major hurricane…although is no immediate threat to land
Here’s a satellite image of this hurricane…along with what the computer models are showing
Irma has strengthened over the eastern Atlantic to become the 4th hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
It’s currently a Category 3 storm, although Irma’s winds could intensify to 120 mph over the next few days, pushing the hurricane to Category 4.
Satellite imagery showed Irma with a pronounced eye today, and maximum sustained winds had increased from 50 mph to 100 mph in just 24 hours…as of late Thursday morning.
Irma will take about a week to trek west across the Atlantic Ocean, with a possible landfall over the Leeward Islands in the northeastern Caribbean…to the Carolina’s and Bermuda – it’s too early to know at this point.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall convection surrounding a small eye. Satellite estimates continue to rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB support an initial wind speed of 100 kt. This is a remarkable 50-kt increase from yesterday at this time. Microwave and satellite data suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle could be starting. This isn't surprising given how small the eye is, and will probably be the first of many eyewall cycles for this hurricane. Overall, Irma should be in a low-shear environment for several days, with the intensity controlled by eyewall cycles and the moderately warm SSTs along the path. Thus the forecast intensity is leveled off for the next 2 days. After the weekend, Irma should be moving over much warmer water, with SSTs forecast to be 29C at the end of the period. All indications are for Irma to be strengthening by the end of the forecast period, with the NHC prediction adjusted slightly upward from the previous one, in line with the extremely low pressures forecast by the global and regional hurricane models at that time. Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt. There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic. At long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south differences in the global models. I am inclined to stay on the southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND None
Atlantic Ocean
Tropical cyclone 10L (Irma)
NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic
Caribbean Sea
There are no current tropical cyclones
NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 09L (Harvey) – Final Advisory
NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico
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