Post-Tropical Cyclone 09L (Harvey) is located about 70 miles east-northeast of Nashville, Tennessee
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Irma) is located about 1495 miles east of the Leeward Islands
Post-Tropical Cyclone Harvey is still producing heavy rain as it moves into the Ohio Valley…while severe flooding continues across far eastern Texas and western Louisiana
Here’s a looping animation…showing Harvey recent location and movement
Here’s a graphic showing the rainfall outlook
Here’s a graphic showing Watches and Warnings…along with rainfall
The NHC advisory #50 shows sustained winds are 20 mph
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS REMAIN ORGANIZED TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT. HARVEY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE HARVEY IN OHIO ON SATURDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SECONDARY EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA, SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THESE RAINS WILL ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOODING RISK ACROSS THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD SEVERE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN AND AROUND HOUSTON, BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR/ORANGE, AND EASTWARD AROUND THE LOUISIANA BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 5 PM Friday
...ALABAMA... GASQUE 8.00 BONSECOUR 7.91 GRAND BAY 10.5 NE 6.81 FOLEY 7.4 SW 6.44 ELBERTA 6.31 ORANGE BEACH 6.03 TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 6.01 MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT 5.83 MOBILE/BATES FIELD 5.83 FAIRHOPE 5.77 GULF SHORES 5.60 SUMMERDALE 4.73 MONTROSE 4.52 DAPHNE 0.4 SW 4.42 FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL 3W 4.35 SONNY CALLAHAN ARPT 4.32 ...ARKANSAS... WATSON 9 N 9.96 LAKE POINSETT RAWS 6.63 MAMMOTH SPRINGS 2 SSE 6.42 LITTLE DIXIE 6.24 CANAL 43 N. NEAR DUMAS 6.03 HARRISBURG 4.33 STUTTGART MUNI ARPT 4.33 FELSENTHAL 7 NNW 3.21 CROSSETT 0.9 S 2.79 JONESBORO MUNI ARPT 2.01 ...FLORIDA... PENSACOLA REGIONAL AIRPORT 7.95 MILTON 7.33 UNIVERSITY WEST 2.0 WNW 6.36 CRESTVIEW - SIKES ARPT 5.63 PACE 5.35 GULF BREEZE 5.28 PANAMA CITY ARPT 4.03 ...GEORGIA... COLUMBUS METRO ARPT 2.04 ATLANTA RGNL ARPT - FALCON FIELD 1.70 ...KENTUCKY... GREEN RIVER NEAR BROWNSVILLE 1 NE 8.82 RUSSELLVILLE 2 W 8.20 HAYS 2 SSE 7.93 BARREN RIVER AT BOWLING GREEN 7.59 ELKTON 5 SW 7.19 GUTHRIE 1 WNW 7.10 PLANO 2 NW 7.04 PROVIDENCE 3 ENE 6.83 GLASGOW RGNL ARPT 6.51 PLUM SPRINGS 3 SSE 6.37 BOWLING GREEN RGNL ARPT 5.99 FRANKLIN 2 NE 5.58 SCOTTSVILLE 2 W 5.54 WISDOM 1 SSW 4.82 AUBURN 6 WNW 4.39 HODGENVILLE 2 E 4.20 CORINTH 3 SW 4.06 LOUISVILLE STANDIFORD FIELD 2.09 ...LOUISIANA... BAYOU CONWAY 22.25 BAYOU TORO NEAR TORO 20.62 KENNER GULLY AT MARK LEBLEU 18.23 CALCASIEU RVR AT OLD TOWN BA 18.15 W-14 AT JOE SPEARS RD 17.85 W-6 AT WARD LINE ROAD 17.24 MOSS BLUFF 16.70 BELFIELD DITCH AT BELFIELD ROAD 16.37 IOWA 0.9 ESE 16.36 GOLDSMITH CANAL AT GOOS RD 16.02 BAYOU ARSENE AT HECKER ROAD 15.84 GOLDSMITH CANAL AT HWY 171 15.74 LAKE CHARLES 11.5 SSW 15.41 RAGLEY 5.0 SE 15.18 EB L-14 AT IOWA BASEBALL FIELD 14.85 INDIAN BAYOU AT COFFEY ROAD 14.10 TOPSY 4 NNW 14.08 LACASSINE BAYOU AT LORRAIN BRIDGE 13.04 ZAVALLA 2 ENE 12.87 SULPHUR 2.2 E 12.54 BON WIER 2 ENE 12.44 HACKBERRY 5 SSE 12.33 CONTRABAND BAYOU AT 18TH STREET 12.28 WELSH 0.7 W 12.26 W-4 AT NELSON ROAD 12.12 GILLIS 4 WSW 12.11 FORT POLK 11.96 BUXTON CREEK AT DOUGLAS ROAD 11.21 CHOUPIQUE BAYOU AT HWY 90 11.02 LACASSINE NATIONAL 2 ENE 10.55 BAYOU DINDE AT PICARD ST 9.76 LEBLEU SETTLEMENT 2 WNW 9.64 FORKED ISLAND 5 ENE 9.37 BUNDICK CREEK NEAR DE RIDDER 9.26 PECAN ISLAND 2 E 9.14 LAKE CHARLES MUNI ARPT 9.08 NEW IBERIA/ACADIANA 8.92 VERNON - FTS 8.77 LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT 7.14 NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT 5.88 NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 5.33 ENGLAND AFB/ALEXANDRIA 4.84 SLIDELL AIRPORT 3.82 BATON ROUGE/RYAN MUNI ARPT 3.17 ...MISSISSIPPI... GAUTIER 8.27 SANDHILL CRANE - FTS 7.90 GRAND BAY 6.06 OCEAN SPRINGS 3.6 ESE 4.61 MOSS POINT - TRENT LOTT INTL ARPT 4.55 PASCAGOULA 4.54 PEARLINGTON 4.4 N 3.99 JOURDAN RIVER NEAR KILN 3.35 TANGIPAHOA RIVER AT OSYKA 3.15 TYLERTOWN 9 WNW 3.08 NATCHEZ/HARDY 2.91 KEESLER AFB/BILOXI 2.55 GULFPORT-BILOXI 2.40 ...TENNESSEE... RED RIVER AT PORT ROYAL 9.17 LAKELAND 8.15 LEXINGTON 7.44 FAIRVIEW BOWIE NATURE CENTER 7.12 MILLEDGEVILLE 2 S 6.78 SPRINGFIELD ROBERTSON CNTY ARPT 6.15 CLARKSVILLE 6.10 CENTERVILLE 15 NE 5.02 NASHVILLE INTL ARPT 4.52 JACKSON MCKELLAR-SIPES RGNL ARPT 4.30 MEMPHIS INTL ARPT 4.05 ...TEXAS... CEDAR BAYOU AT FM 1942 51.88 CLEAR CREEK AT I-45 49.40 DAYTON 0.2 E 49.23 MARYS CREEK AT WINDING ROAD 49.20 CLEAR LAKE 48.14 BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 47.35 SANTA FE 0.7 S 46.70 PASADENA 4.4 WNW 45.74 HORSEPEN CREEK AT BAY AREA BLVD 45.60 SOUTH HOUSTON 4.0 SSW 44.91 BERRY BAYOU AT FOREST OAKS BLVD 44.80 BERRY BAYOU AT NEVADA 44.44 FRIENDSWOOD 2.5 NNE 44.05 LITTLE VINCE BAYOU AT BURKE RD 43.52 HOUSTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 43.38 LEAGUE CITY 2.7 NE 43.32 WEBSTER 0.4 NW 43.32 LNVA CHEEK CANAL AT DITCH 407 43.11 LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU AT 8TH ST 42.32 ARMAND BAYOU AT GENOA-RED BLUFF RD 42.16 TURKEY CREEK AT FM 1959 42.12 BOONDOCKS RD AT TAYLORS BA 41.86 ARMAND BAYOU AT PASADENA LAKE 41.20 TAYLOR LAKE AT NASA ROAD 1 40.44 SH 124 AT HILLEBRANDT BAYOU 38.18 MAHAW BAYOU AT ENGLIN RD 37.75 JACINTO CITY 37.60 HUNTING BAYOU AT LOOP 610 EAST 37.00 TELEPSEN 36.60 MAHAW BAYOU AT BRUSH ISLAND ROAD 36.53 FIRST COLONY 4 WSW 36.34 BEAMER DITCH HUGHES RD 36.32 LA PORTE 1 N 36.24 BAYTOWN 2 NW 35.64 MOUNT HOUSTON 35.60 HOUSTON/CLOVER FIELD 33.37 HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 31.26 KATY 6 NE 31.23 HOUSTON/WILL HOBBY 27.88 HOUSTON/D.W. HOOKS 27.01 GALVESTON/SCHOLES 22.84 COLLEGE STATION 2 SSW 19.64 VICTORIA 3.8 NW 15.60 AUSTIN 4 SSE 10.28 AUSTIN/MUELLER MUNI ARPT 10.07 CORPUS CHRISTI 3.6 S 6.23
Hurricane Irma remains a powerful hurricane in the Atlantic, as a Category 3 major hurricane…although is no immediate threat to land
The hurricane is still 5-days from reaching the Caribbean islands, and at least a week away from any potential impacts in the United States, there’s still a lot of uncertainty about where it will end up going.
“Irma has become an impressive hurricane,” the National Hurricane Center said Thursday, noting the rapid intensification. “This is a remarkable 50 knot (58 mph) increase from yesterday at this time.”
Hurricane Irma is forecast to continue to strengthen as it moves westward over the next five days, and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center puts a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Irma nearing the Caribbean by the end of the five-day forecast next Tuesday.
Hurricane Irma is a powerful hurricane, and those with interests in the Caribbean and southeast US coast should pay close attention to the ongoing NHC forecasts.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
Well, that eyewall replacement cycle didn't last long. Satellite images indicate that the cycle is now complete, with Irma displaying a larger warm eye. The initial wind speed has been set to 105 kt, in agreement with the CIMSS ADT. Since the eyewall cycle is finished, some strengthening is possible, although SSTs are currently pretty marginal. Although no increase in winds is shown in the short term, this could be conservative. During the next few days, water temperatures along the track will warm significantly, but there could be some higher shear, and of course more eyewall replacements. The forecast is a compromise between the statistical/dynamical models, which bring the intensity down then up again, versus the global models and hurricane models, which show a rather strong cyclone. The westward turn of Irma has begun, and the current motion is 275/12. A building mid-level high should cause the hurricane to turn west-southwestward tomorrow and continue through early next week. Later on, Irma should reach the southern periphery of the ridge, and begin to move west-northwestward. The biggest change since the last forecast is that the GFS and its ensemble has trended southwestward, toward the unwavering ECMWF model on the track forecast. Given the trend in guidance, little change is made to the official track prediction, although the corrected consensus models and the HWRF are now southwest of the latest forecast.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND None
Tropical cyclone 10L (Irma)
A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this system could become a tropical depression after the weekend while it moves westward at 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
There are no current tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
Post-Tropical Cyclone 09L (Harvey)
For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.