Tropical Cyclone 09L (Harvey) is located about 30 miles north-northwest of Lake Charles, Louisiana
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Irma) is located about 420 miles west of Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Storm Harvey is finally moving out of Texas…
Tropical Storm Harvey made a second landfall just west of Cameron, Louisiana early this morning. The National Hurricane Center said the storm came back on land about 5 miles west of Cameron, and almost 200 miles east of Houston, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Harvey is forecast to drop substantial amounts of rain on Louisiana before moving on to Arkansas, Tennessee and parts of Missouri.
Some areas could see up to 10 inches of rain. And forecasters warned of possible tornadoes across a wide swath of the Southeast as Harvey rolled inland.
Parts of Houston, the United States’ fourth largest city, will be uninhabitable for weeks and possibly months…due to this 1,000-year flood.
FEMA Administrator Brock Long said 30,000 people were in more than 200 shelters, big and small, across the region. About 1,800 evacuees have been moved to hotels and other longer-term housing options, he said.
Some areas near Houston received over 50.00 inches of rain, more than the level usually seen in a year. The storm is not expected to bring the devastating flooding seen in parts of Texas, to Louisiana and other states…although flash flooding may occur.
Here’s a looping animation…showing Harvey recent location and movement
Here’s the latest looping radar image of this part of Texas and Louisiana
Here’s a looping satellite image of this system
Here’s a graphic showing the rainfall outlook
Here’s a graphic showing Watches and Warnings…along with rainfall
The NHC advisory #41 shows sustained winds are 45 mph
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
Radar, satellite, and surface observations indicate that Harvey's center has crossed the coast just west of Cameron, Louisiana, with most of the associated deep convection located over extreme southeastern Texas and western Louisiana. Although the rain has ended in the Houston/Galveston area, the Beaumont/Port Arthur area was particularly hard hit overnight, with about 12.5 inches reported at the Jack Brooks Regional Airport since 7 pm CDT. ASCAT data from late last night indicated that Harvey's maximum winds were near 40 kt, and the tropical-storm-force wind radii on the eastern side were a little smaller than previously estimated. Harvey has turned north-northeastward and is moving a little faster with an initial motion of 030/6 kt. The cyclone is located on the northwestern side of a mid-tropospheric high, which should steer it north-northeastward and the northeastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys during the next few days. The global models indicate that the surface low should dissipate over the Ohio Valley by day 4, which is now indicated in the NHC forecast. Now that Harvey's center is moving inland, the maximum winds should gradually decrease during the next few days. Harvey is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight, and then it could become a remnant low by day 3. This weakening will not eliminate the risk of continued heavy rainfall and flooding along Harvey's path, although the system's faster motion will prevent rainfall totals from being anywhere near what occurred over southeastern Texas.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 10 inches. While the threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into parts of the Tennessee Valley through Friday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across these areas. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Holly Beach to Morgan City...2 to 4 feet San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach incl. Galveston Bay...1 to 3 feet Morgan City to Grand Isle...1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist through today. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southeast Arkansas.
Tropical Storm Irma has spun up west of the Cabo Verde Islands…although is no immediate threat to land
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area in the far eastern Atlantic has become much better organized since yesterday, with many curved bands around the center. ASCAT data showed peak winds of about 42 kt, and after considering the small size of the circulation and some undersampling due to the resolution of the instrument, the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt. Global models indicate that the upper-level winds are likely to be favorable for strengthening of Irma during the next several days. However, Irma will be moving over more marginal water temperatures and into drier mid-level conditions, which should temper the intensification rate. The NHC solution is a blend of the intensity consensus and the statistical-dynamical hurricane models SHIPS and LGEM. At the end of the period, the forecast could turn out to be conservative if the very conducive environment shown in most of the global models emerges. The initial motion estimate is 280/11. A ridge over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to steer Irma westward over the next few days. Thereafter, the ridge builds southwestward, which will likely cause the storm to move, somewhat unusually, toward the west-southwest. The official forecast puts more weight on the global models than the regional hurricane models, which appear to have a northward bias on this cycle. Thus, the NHC track prediction is on the southwestern side of the guidance envelope, although not as far in that direction as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean.
Tropical cyclone 10L (Irma)
There are no current tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 09L (Harvey)
For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.