Tropical Cyclone 09L (Harvey) is located about 90 miles east-southeast of Port Oconnor, Texas
Potential Tropical Cyclone 10L is active…located about 150 miles southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina
Tropical Storm Harvey remains nearly stationary…bringing widespread flash flood emergencies to parts of southeastern Texas
Harvey made landfall between Port Aransas and Port O’Connor, Texas, on Friday night as a Category 4 storm. Despite weakening over land, Harvey is bringing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding…as it stalls over the region.
Excessive flooding is overwhelming Houston, and up to 50 Texas counties…as more than 20 inches of rain fell in the area in 24 hours.
More than 30,000 people will need shelter as a result of the unrelenting rain that has hit the region, FEMA Administrator Brock Long said Monday.
“This event is unprecedented and all impacts are unknown…beyond anything experienced,” the National Weather Service tweeted.
The director of the National Weather Service warned that the flooding will worsen in the coming days, as an additional 20 inches of rain could fall on top of the more than 30 inches that some places have already seen.
The Coast Guard said Sunday it rescued more than 100 people from rooftops and conducted more than 2,000 multiperson rescues, with three-boat teams searching block-by-block for stranded residents.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said 600 boats were aiding rescue efforts, and the Coast Guard said at least 16 helicopters were tapped for air rescues, with more coming into the area by Monday.
Abbott declared a state of emergency for 50 counties, and Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards issued a statewide emergency declaration.
The National Guard sent in 3,000 troops to Texas, the governor said Sunday. He activated another 1,000 troops late Sunday night.
“Assistance is pouring in from across the country,” Abbott said at the state’s emergency operations center in Austin. He said the National Guard troops were being activated in addition to hundreds of other state emergency personnel aiding local first responders.
Federal emergency officials said the recovery after Harvey could last for years.
“This disaster is going to be a landmark event,” Federal Emergency Management Agency chief Brock Long said Sunday on CNN. “We’re setting up and gearing up for the next couple of years.’’
Here’s a close up satellite image of Harvey as it impacted the Texas coast
Here’s a looping animation…showing Harvey as it moved from the Gulf of Mexico inland over Texas
Here’s a looping satellite image of this system
Here’s a graphic showing the rainfall outlook
The NHC advisory #35A shows sustained winds are 45 mph…with gusts to near 55 mph
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
Radar and surface data indicate that the center of Harvey is near or just off the Texas coast south of Matagorda. The system currently has only disorganized convection near the center, with the primary deep convection in a band well to the east of the center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a minimum central pressure around 997 mb and the assumption that stronger winds aloft seen on the Houston WSR-88D are mixing down to the surface in the stronger bands. While the convection is currently poorly organized, very heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding continue over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. There have been reports of 2-day rainfall totals of close to 30 inches in the Greater Houston area. With the additional rains that are expected over the next several days, rainfall totals could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic for the area. Due to the current structure, a dry slot seen in water vapor imagery over the southern part of the circulation, and the lack of intensification shown by the intensity guidance, only slight strengthening is anticipated while Harvey remains over the Gulf of Mexico. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous one. Radar and surface observations indicate that the center is moving slowly southeastward, or 125/4 kt. A mid-level trough dropping into the Ohio Valley should cause Harvey to turn toward the east and northeast and move back over land in a couple of days. There is little change to the forecast track from the previous advisory, and the new track remains close to the dynamical model consensus.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the upper Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/ Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large portions of southeastern Texas. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south into the middle Texas coast and farther east across south-central Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in southeast Louisiana. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in rain bands well to the east of the center of Harvey, including portions of the tropical storm warning area along the coast. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist in areas of onshore winds within the warning area during the next couple of days, and are possible in the watch area by Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight from extreme southeast Texas across parts of southern Louisiana.
Potential Tropical Cyclone (10L) remains active…not far offshore to the east of the Georgia coast.
The NHC has given Potential Tropical Cyclone 10L a high chance of formation into a tropical depression or storm within the next day or so…the next named storm in the Atlantic would be Irma.
Tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina.
Tropical-storm-force winds (39 mph or greater) are possible within the watch area tonight through Tuesday.
According to the NHC Advisory 6A, sustained winds were 40 mph
Potential Tropical Cyclone 10L Alerts graphic
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches (locally up to 9 inches) are expected along the immediate coast, from South Carolina to North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Some localized flooding is possible in those areas.
Rainfall graphic showing the forecast through Tuesday
Rough surf, rip currents and minor coastal flooding will also affect the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts Monday and Tuesday. This is due to onshore winds between high pressure over the Northeast and the area of low pressure near the Southeast coast.
The Northeast and mid-Atlantic coastline could also be brushed by some rain and gusty winds Tuesday into early Wednesday.
All impacts from this system should subside by Wednesday as the low swiftly moves out to sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
According to the NHC:
The disturbance has not developed a well-defined center yet, and it still consists of a sharp trough extending from northern Florida northeastward across the adjacent Atlantic. The area of minimum pressure appears to be located just east of the Georgia coast. Nearby observations suggest that the winds remain about 30 kt. The disturbance is moving over warm waters but the shear is quite strong for the system to develop significantly. On this basis, the NHC forecasts the disturbance to become a tropical depression and a tropical storm during the next 12 hour to 24 hours. Thereafter, the shear will increase considerably, and most likely the system will intensify as an extratropical cyclone. However, the exact timing of the transition is uncertain since the cyclone will be moving over warm waters. It appears that the area of minimum pressure is moving toward the north-northeast at 8 kt, but this is highly uncertain since we do not have a center. This system is already embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead a trough, and this pattern will steer the disturbance toward the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is schedule to be in the disturbance later today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area later today. RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the northeastern South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions.
Finally, a tropical wave and associated low pressure area located just offshore of the coast of western Africa is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form in a few days over the eastern Atlantic.
The low is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
Potential Tropical cyclone 10L
There are no current tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 09L (Harvey)
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