Tropical Cyclone 09L (Harvey) is located about 20 miles east of Victoria, Texas
Tropical Cyclone 10L is now active…located about 325 miles southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina
Tropical Storm Harvey remains nearly stationary…bringing widespread flash flood emergencies to parts of southeastern Texas
Harvey made landfall between Port Aransas and Port O’Connor, Texas, on Friday night as a Category 4 storm. Despite weakening over land, Harvey is bringing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding…as it stalls over the region.
According to NWS sources, thousands of homes are taking on water, and hundreds of people are trapped and stranded in rising floodwaters across the Houston metro…after Harvey dumped more than two feet of rain. More than 1,000 people have been rescued across the area so far, as the death toll from Harvey rose to three.
The National Weather Service is warning people to seek shelter on their roofs rather than in attics to avoid becoming trapped by rushing water.
U.S. Coast Guard Air Station Houston says it has five MH-65 Dolphin Helicopters conducting rescues in the greater Houston area and is requesting additional HH-60 Jayhawk Helicopters from New Orleans and support from the Air National Guard to support rescue efforts.
Parts of southeast Houston received 12-19 inches of rain in just six hours Saturday night into early Sunday, according to the Houston Flood Control District.
In nearby Galveston, the local Independent School District announced that classes at all locations have been canceled on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. All non-essential staff were released at 11:00 am on Friday.
Because of the storm, four cruise ships due this weekend to Galveston with a combined 20,000 people on board will wait until Tuesday to return to port, WFAA reports.
The circulation center is caught in an area of light winds, which are stalling Harvey in place. The storm will then remain in the area just inland from the Texas coast for days to come….resulting in excessive rain.
Here’s a close up satellite image of Harvey as it impacted the Texas coast
Here’s a looping animation…showing Harvey as it moved from the Gulf of Mexico inland over Texas
Here’s a looping satellite image of this system
Here’s a graphic showing the rainfall outlook
The NHC advisory #31, shows sustained winds are 40 knots…with gusts to near 50 knots.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
The unprecedented flooding rainfall event continues to unfold over a large area of southeastern Texas. While Harvey has been moving slowly eastward or east-southeastward today, bands of heavy rainfall have continued to form over the northwestern Gulf and train inland over much of the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Storm total rainfall amounts in the 20-27 inch range are quite common in the Greater Houston area, and additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected over the next several days. Rainfall total could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic for that area. Harvey is still producing tropical-storm-force winds, with a recent observation of 34 kt with a gust to 46 kt at New Braunfels, Texas. The NHC track guidance is in better agreement showing Harvey moving just offshore of the Texas coast on Monday, then turning northward and moving inland over northeastern Texas by 72 hours. All of the global models show some slight deepening of the system after it moves over water, but given the lack of an inner core, significant strengthening is not anticipated. Although a tropical storm watch has been issued, which may need to be extended eastward along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast tonight, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flooding continue to the primary threats.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the upper Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding, and flash flood emergencies are in effect for portions of southeastern Texas. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south into the middle Texas coast, farther west toward the Texas Hill Country, and farther east across south- central Louisiana. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in an area near the center of Harvey and over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the coast. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist in areas of onshore flow within the warning area during the next day or so. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the upper Texas coast and into far southwest Louisiana.
Potential tropical cyclone (10L) has spun up…not far offshore to the east of the Georgia coast.
According to the NHC: Convection associated with the broad area
of low pressure located east of the Georgia coast has increased
markedly today. Visibile satellite imagery shows multiple low-level swirls rotating around a mean center, but ASCAT data earlier today
showed that the circulation was not yet well-defined. The ASCAT
data and buoy observations indicate that the initial intensity
is 30 kt, and buoy data suggest the central pressure is around
1007 mb. While the system is expected to remain sheared, it has a
high chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm
before it becomes baroclinic in about 48 hours. Given that, and the
potential for this system to bring tropical storm conditions to the
coast from northern South Carolina through North Carolina, advisories
are being initiated on this system as a Potential Tropical Cyclone. The system is currently moving little in a region of weak steering, but should begin to move slowly northward and then quickly accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into the mid-Atlantic states. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the global models keeping the low center near the coast, but as usual there is more uncertainty than usual in the track forecast for a weak/developing system. After the system moves into the western Atlantic, it should continue accelerating east-northeastward ahead of the upper trough through the end of the period. Despite the sheared envirionment, the system should be able to intensify a little via diabatic processes before it intensifies further as it undergoes a more substantial baroclinic intensification at 48 hours and beyond. The NHC intensity forecast follows the intensity consensus through 36 hours and then follows the trend of the global model guidance and guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Although the potential impacts are within 36 hours, given the uncertainty in whether tropical storm force winds will occur on land in northeastern South Caroilna and southeastern North Carolina, south, a tropical storm watch has been issued for these areas. Note that north of Duck, North Carolina, hazards from this system will be handled with non-tropical products issued by local National Weather Service offices. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday night through Tuesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with isolated possible maximum amounts of 6 inches.
Potential Tropical cyclone 10L
1.) A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean tonight or early Monday. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow development by the middle of next week while the wave moves westward about 15-20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
There are no current tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 09L (Harvey)
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