Tropical Cyclone 09L (Harvey) is located about 75 miles east of San Antonio, Texas
Tropical Storm Harvey has weakened inland over Texas, after slamming into the coast as a Category 4 hurricane…bringing widespread damage.
Hurricane Harvey made landfall at 945pm Friday evening, coming ashore near Rockport, Texas…with 130 mph winds. Harvey will meander for several days, leading to a threat of catastrophic flooding in parts of Texas.
The storm, which was downgraded to a Category 1 hurricane early Saturday morning, dumped between 10-30 inches of rain in some areas, spawned tornadoes…along with fires and widespread power outages across southern Texas.
The hurricane knocked out power to nearly 300,000 customers along the Texas coast, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. Emergency personnel in the communities northeast of Corpus Christi where Harvey made landfall, are reporting a loss of cellphone service and other forms of communication.
As residents of the Texas Gulf Coast braced for days of “catastrophic” flooding from a weakened tropical storm Harvey, a law enforcement official confirmed the state’s first fatality, a man trapped in his burning house during the height of the hurricane.
Aransas County Sheriff Bill Mills said the man killed in the storm was discovered Saturday in his home, which was destroyed by a fire as the Category 4 hurricane churned through the county.
The hurricane’s toll may take time to determine, as Mills said 30 to 40 people remained unaccounted for as of Saturday evening. About 30 people were being treated for injuries in the county.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. These winds are confined to a small area near the center. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey remains a tropical storm.
The circulation center is getting caught in an area of light winds, which will stall Harvey. The storm will then remain in the area near the Texas coast for days to come….resulting in very large amounts of rain.
NOAA’s latest storm-total rainfall forecasts:
- Middle/upper Texas coast: 15 to 30 inches, with isolated totals up to 40 inches
- Deep South Texas and Texas Hill Country eastward to central and southwest Louisiana: 5 to 15 inches
Here’s a close up satellite image of Harvey as it impacted the Texas coast
Here’s a looping animation…showing Harvey as it moved from the Gulf of Mexico inland over Texas
Here’s a looping satellite image of this system
Here’s a graphic showing the rainfall outlook
The NHC advisory #27, shows sustained winds are 45 knots…with gusts to near 55 knots.
Highest winds (gusts):
- Port Aransas: 132 mph
- Near Copano Village: 125 mph
- Near Lamar: 110 mph
- Rockport: 108 mph
- Near Taft: 90 mph
- Near Magnolia Beach: 79 mph
- Corpus Christi NAS: 74 mph
- Edna: 73 mph
- Near Clear Lake Shores: 71 mph
- Corpus Christi Int’l Airport: 63 mph
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
The central convection associated with Harvey has shown warming cloud tops during the past several hours, although radar data shows widespread rain continuing near and north of the center. Winds from the New Braunfels WSR-88D are near 65 kt at 1500-2500 ft near the center, but it is uncertain how well these winds are mixing down to the surface. The initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat uncertain 45 kt based mainly on the radar data. Harvey has drifted east-northeastward since the last advisory. While the model guidance is not in great agreement, it appears that the cyclone will drift southward or southeastward during the next couple of days due to the distant influence of a trough digging into the eastern United States. After that time, a building ridge over the Gulf of Mexico should cause Harvey to drift generally northward. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the consensus models. At this time, the forecast track keeps the center of Harvey inland, as there is not enough agreement between the models that the center of Harvey will actually emerge over water. Harvey should continue to weaken to a tropical depression during the next day or so as the cyclone remains inland. As the center nears the coast, it is likely that the cyclone will maintain that status for several days as a large amount of the circulation will be over the water. By the end of the forecast period, the system should be far enough inland so that Harvey will again weaken. An alternative scenario is that Harvey could re-intensify if the center emerges over the Gulf.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around 40 inches in this area. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. Elsewhere during the same time period, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the the Texas Hill Country, and farther east through southwest and central Louisiana. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas to Sargent...3 to 6 ft Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in an area near the center and over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the coast. These conditions are likely to persist through Sunday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should subside through Sunday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.
>>> Meanwhile, an elongated area of low pressure stretching across north-central Florida continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from the southwest coast of Florida northeastward into the western Atlantic.
Although upper-level winds are not particularly conducive, this system has the potential to become a tropical or subtropical depression early next week after it moves off the northeast coast of Florida on Sunday.
The low is forecast to move close to the southeastern coast of the United States and merge with a cold front by mid-week.
Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the low is expected to cause increasing winds and rough surf along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas through early next week. Heavy rain is also expected to continue over portions of southern and central Florida during the next day or two.
Here’s the NWS Florida looping radar image
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
There are no current tropical cyclones
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Environmental conditions may be conducive for slow development by the middle of next week while the wave moves westward about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
There are no current tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 09L (Harvey)
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