Tropical Cyclone 09L (Harvey) is located about 535 miles south-southeast of Port Connor, Texas
Tropical Depression Harvey has regenerated in the southern Gulf of Mexico…and will head towards the Texas coast as a Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane
The moisture from Harvey is expected to bring widespread heavy rain and flooding to southeast Texas starting Friday…continuing through the weekend. Major flooding is possible.
Forecasters suggest that Harvey could produce total rain accumulations of 10-15 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Tuesday.
Harvey also is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3-9 inches in portions of south, central and northeast Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley.
Here’s a looping satellite image of this system
The NHC advisory #1, shows sustained winds are 30 knots…with gusts to near 40 knots.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that Harvey has regenerated in the Bay of Campeche, with a closed circulation. Harvey is not well organized at the moment, with an asymmetric cloud pattern and a large radius of maximum wind. The environment, however, is conducive for intensification while Harvey moves over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters in light-to-moderate wind shear.
The biggest hindrance to intensification in the short term is the poor structure. Thus the NHC forecast will only show a gradual increase in wind speed during the first day, with a more significant intensification after that time. Although not explicitly forecast, we are anticipating Harvey being a hurricane at landfall after the 48 hour forecast point. This forecast agrees well with the guidance, almost all of which shows a quickly intensifying cyclone approaching the Texas coast.
Harvey is expected to move more slowly toward the northwest or north-northwest as it enters a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge during the next day or so. The ridge slightly strengthens by late Thursday, which should cause a faster northwestward motion by then. Around the time of landfall, however, Harvey should enter an area of weaker steering currents near the upper Texas coast, as high pressure rebuilds over the southwestern United States.
The storm should slow down markedly over southeast Texas, and there is considerable uncertainty on exactly how fast Harvey moves out of that state ahead of the next mid-latitude trough. For now the NHC forecast will just drift Harvey generally toward the east at days 4 and 5, on the slow side of the model consensus. Hopefully later G-IV flights and special soundings over the southern United States will help clarify the long range forecast.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port Mansfield to High Island.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from north of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield and from north of San Luis Pass to High Island.
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Mexico from Boca De Catan to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system for possible watches this afternoon.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning. Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could cause life-threatening flooding.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Port Mansfield to High Island…4 to 6 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> Meanwhile, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending across the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Any development of this system during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts northward over Florida and the adjacent waters.
Thereafter, some tropical or subtropical development is possible over the weekend when the system begins to move northeastward over the western Atlantic before it merges with a front.
Regardless of development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
There are no current tropical cyclones
There are no current tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 09L (Harvey)
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