Tropical Cyclone 09L (Harvey) is located about 55 miles west of Barbados
Tropical Storm Harvey is moving between Barbados and the Windward Islands
Tropical Storm Harvey is bringing rain to the Windward Islands, and may pose a threat early next week in parts of Central America’s Caribbean coast.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the Windward Islands, including Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Warnings are issued when tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Dominica, where those conditions are possible within that time period.
Harvey will bring 2-4 inches of rain across the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada, which could trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. As of early Friday morning, almost 4.5 inches of rain has fallen in Barbados.
The system will then track westward through the rest of the Caribbean Sea, and will likely pose a threat to parts of Central America and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula early next week.
Here’s a looping satellite image of this storm
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), TS Harvey’s cloud pattern has changed very little in organization during the past several hours. The low-level center is difficult to find, but it appears to be located on the eastern edge of the convection due to the prevailing easterly shear.
Another Air Force plane will be investigating Harvey at sunrise. The moderate easterly wind shear affecting the cyclone is expected to increase a little during the next day or so, and this factor should not allow significant strengthening. Once the cyclone reaches the western Caribbean Sea in 3-4 days, an environment of lower wind shear and high moisture is forecast to prevail, and Harvey should then gather some strength.
The cyclone could be near hurricane strength by the time it is approaching Central America or the Yucatan peninsula. The GFS and the ECMWF global models are just a little more enthusiastic in keeping the cyclone from dissipating in this last run, but who knows what they might forecast the next time.
Harvey has not changed in track or speed, and it is still moving toward the west at 16 knots. The cyclone is well embedded within the easterlies…south of a persistent subtropical ridge. This steering pattern will keep Harvey trapped in the Caribbean Sea while moving westward for the next few days.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading through the warning area at this time, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area today.
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Meanwhile, elsewhere in the Atlantic, the NHC is highlighting two tropical disturbances
1.) Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 750 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands continues to show signs of organization.
While it would take only a slight increase in organization for a tropical depression to form later today or tonight, upper-level winds are becoming less favorable for development.
The low is expected to move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
2.) Shower activity has increased during the last 24 hours in association with a tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for some development early next week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Tropical cyclone 09L (Harvey)
Gulf of Mexico
There are no current tropical cyclones
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