Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gert) is located about 685 miles east of Halifax, Nova Scotia
Hurricane Gert is bringing swells to parts of the U.S. and Canadian east coasts…although remains away from land
Hurricane Gert, the second hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, is beginning to weaken over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and it will remain well off the East Coast with increased wave action the only indirect impact.
Gert is the strongest hurricane of the season so far, and also became the first Category 2 of the season on Wednesday.
Here’s a looping satellite image of this hurricane
While remaining several hundred miles off the East Coast, Hurricane Gert has still generated swells that will continue to affect areas from the Mid-Atlantic coast to southeast New England and coastal Maine through Wednesday.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the convective structure of Gert has rapidly deteriorated during the morning hours due to very cold cold sea surface temperatures, and wind shear exceeding 40 knots. The hurricane still has a little deep convection in the northeast quadrant, but the low-level circulation appears to have become somewhat elongated along a south-southwest, north-northeast axis.
Since there is a lack of recent scatterometer or buoy observations near the center, the intensity estimate is a little more uncertain than normal. Gert continues to accelerate toward the northeast and the initial motion estimate is northeast at 35 knots. The cyclone is quickly becoming extratropical, and the transition process should complete later today.
Gert should continue to steadily spin down while moving quickly toward the northeast for the next day or so ahead of a large extratropical low currently centered near the Gulf of St. Lawrence. An interaction of the two cyclones should result in the eventual absorption or dissipation of Gert shortly after 48 hours. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts have incorporated guidance from NOAA’s Ocean Prediction Center.
Swells from Gert should continue to affect the coast of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Gert will continue to affect the coast of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Meanwhile, elsewhere in the Atlantic, the NHC is highlighting three tropical disturbances in the tropical Atlantic
1.) Morning satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated with a low pressure system centered about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become better organized overnight, and buoy data indicates that the circulation is becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form later today or tonight as the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
2.) Shower activity associated with a second area of low pressure located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles has also become a little better organized during the past 24 hours.
Continued gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
3.) Finally, a tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Tropical cyclone 08L (Gert)
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