Tropical Cyclone 06L (Emily) is located about 35 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida
Tropical Storm Emily will likely lose some strength as it crosses the Florida Peninsula…and then restrengthen a bit over the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean
Here’s a looping satellite image
Here’s a animated radar image
Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph, moving eastward at 9 mph
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center / alerts over Florida
According to the National Hurricane Center, there has been little change in Emily’s overall structure as seen in satellite and radar imagery over the past several hours. The inner-core convection has waxed and waned while the outer convective bands and rain shield on the south side of the small cyclone have remained fairly steady.
Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, after which slow weakening is expected as Emily moves across the Florida peninsula through tonight. After emerging off of the east-central Florida on Tuesday, some slow re-strengthening is forecast on days 2-3…when Emily will be moving over warm seas surface temperatures, and the wind shear will shift from northwesterly to southwesterly, and decrease to 10-15 knots.
By 96 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to 25-30 knots, which should keep the intensity steady or induce slight weakening until Emily dissipates in about 120 hours. Since Emily is not expected to regain tropical storm status before it moves offshore of the Florida east coast Tuesday morning, no watches or warnings are required for that area.
Emily is approaching the mouth of Tampa Bay, and landfall along the west-central Florida coast should occur by early afternoon. After landfall, the latest model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Emily turning east-northeastward tonight and moving across the central Florida peninsula as a depression, and emerging off of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning. A trough currently located over the upper Midwest is forecast to dig southeastward and amplify along the southeastern U.S. coast by 24-36 hours, accelerating Emily to the northeast over the open Atlantic through the remainder of the forecast period.
The primary threat with Emily is expected to be locally heavy rainfall across central an southern portions of the Florida peninsula during the next day or two. However, a brief tornado will be possible across central and southern Florida today…along with isolated waterspouts over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Anclote River to Bonita Beach Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4 inches possible. Reports from amateur radio operators indicate that street and road flooding has already been occurring in Manatee and Sarasota Counties near the Myakka River.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area through this afternoon.
TORNADOES: A brief tornado could occur across the central and southern Florida Peninsula today, with isolated waterspouts possible over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida.
1.) Shower activity remains limited in association with a tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
There are no current tropical cyclones
There are no current tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone 06L (Emily)
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