Post-tropical cyclone 04L (Cristobal) remains active in the northern Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 300 miles east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland – Final Advisory
Post-tropical cyclone (Cristobal) is now a powerful storm in the northern Atlantic Ocean
Here’s a NASA satellite image of Cristobal racing across the northern Atlantic Ocean. Now retired Cristobal’s maximum sustained winds were near 75 mph, which are still of hurricane force…although are expected to diminish over the next 36 hours.
According to the NHC, former tropical cyclone Cristobal has completed its transformation into a powerful extra-tropical cyclone.
A recent satellite pass revealed a large swath of 50-60 knot winds (58-69 mph) to the southeast of the center.
Although some gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, the low is expected to remain a large and powerful cyclone over the north Atlantic…until it merges with another large low pressure system near Iceland in 36 to 48 hours.
The cyclone has been moving northeast at more than 46 mph during the past 6 to 12 hours.
The United Kingdom Meteorological Service (UKMS) expects the storm to move northeast across the Atlantic toward Iceland, staying well away from the United Kingdom. The latest forecast has Cristobal bringing stronger winds across northwestern parts of Scotland, and rain across the United Kingdom on Sunday, August 31st through September 1st.
Here’s the current NOAA satellite image of this post-tropical storm
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance moving through the Caribbean Sea
Here’s a satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico…and the Caribbean Sea
The area circled in yellow above, is being referred to as Invest 97L, and is located in the central Caribbean Sea. It has lots of thunderstorms, although the limiting factor at this point continues to be the wind shear that’s blowing over the top of this disturbance.
There’s a very low chance of this cyclone spinning-up into a tropical cyclone over the next two days. The NHC suggests that chances will increase to a somewhat higher 20% over the next five days.
97L will continue moving west to west-northwest for the time being, which will eventually bring it over the western Caribbean, then over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Heavy rains will accompany the disturbance as it crosses the Peninsula, before it moves out over the very warm water of the Bay of Campeche early next week.
If this disturbance remains organized enough, there’s a better chance that it could find more favorable environmental conditions…and perhaps become a tropical depression then.
Here’s a satellite image of this area.
Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather located just offshore from western Africa.
This area of disturbed weather has moved off the coast of Africa today, and is moving in a westward direction at near 15 mph.
The NHC is giving this disturbance a very low 0% chance of developing over the next two days, which increases to 10% over the next five days.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
Post-tropical Cyclone 04L (Cristobal) – Final Advisory
A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing minimal shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward near 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
There are no active tropical cyclones
1.) Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next day or so. However, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some development when the system moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday,
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones