Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy) remains active in the Gulf of Mexico…located about 125 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas
Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy) continues moving through the Gulf of Mexico…towards the northern gulf coast
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.
As TS Cindy continues to spin in the Gulf of Mexico, it will potentially bring major flooding to parts of the Gulf Coast and South…through late this week. Gusty winds, rip currents and isolated tornadoes are also in the latest forecast from the NHC.
Rainfall from Cindy will spread north and east Thursday through Friday, resulting in possible flooding from the south…northward into the Ohio Valley.
Looping satellite image of this tropical cyclone
Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TS 03L
The NHC Advisory #8 shows that TC 03L had sustained 45 knot winds…with 55 mph gusts
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Cindy has the overall appearance of a subtropical cyclone this morning with a convective cluster just northwest of the center, and additional convection in a ragged band well removed from the center in the eastern semicircle.
However, there is more convection near the center than earlier, so the system remains a tropical cyclone on this advisory. Regular water vapor imagery and experimental low-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show that a significant amount of dry air is present just east of the center, and this is likely disrupting the convective organization.
Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the maximum winds have decreased a little and are now near 45 knots. The data also show that the 34-knot wind radii have decreased over the northeastern quadrant.
Cindy is expected to turn northward, and then later in the forecast period Cindy, or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward over the eastern United States. Given the presence of the dry air near the center and its affects on the convection, little change in strength is expected before landfall.
Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become absorbed in a frontal system over the eastern United States just after 72 hours. While the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from intensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall threat. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area today through Thursday.
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight from the western Florida Panhandle across southwest Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.
There are no current tropical cyclones
There are no current tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy)
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