Tropical Cyclone 04L (Cristobal) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 545 miles south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia – Category 1 Hurricane
Hurricane 04L (Cristobal) continues to gradually strengthen, passing well offshore of the east coast of the United States…heading towards Iceland
Hurricane Cristobal’s maximum sustained winds were near 75 mph…which are expected to reach 85 mph over the next 24 hours.
According to the NHC, the satellite presentation of Cristobal has become much more symmetrical.
Some strengthening is expected today while the hurricane remains over a warm sea surface. The tropical cyclone will begin to interact with a frontal zone tonight, and should complete extra-tropical transition Friday. The global models indicate that the extra-tropical low will remain a powerful cyclone over the north Atlantic during the next few days.
Hurricane Cristobal is moving northeastward at a quick paced 23 knots (27 mph). This tropical cyclone will continue to accelerate northeastward, embedded in the mid-latitude prevailing westerlies.
Open ocean vessels should be giving this hurricane a wide berth, as dangerous conditions exist along its path, and will continue to do so into the weekend.
The NWS has issued a high surf advisory for 6-12 foot breakers, along with rip currents on the southern coasts of Rhode Island and Massachusetts…including Cape Cod and the nearby islands of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND THE
U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
LARGE SWELLS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance moving through the Caribbean Sea…along with another close to the southern coast of Texas
Here’s a satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico…and the Caribbean Sea
The first area circled in yellow above, is being referred to as Invest 97L, and is located in the eastern Caribbean Sea. It has lots of thunderstorms, although the limiting factor at this point is the wind shear that’s blowing over the top of this disturbance.
There’s a very low chance of this cyclone spinning-up into a tropical cyclone over the next two days. The NHC suggests that chances will increase to a somewhat higher 20% over the next five days.
97L will continue moving west to west-northwest for the time being, which will eventually bring it over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Heavy rains will accompany the disturbance as it crosses the Peninsula, before it moves out over the very warm water of the Bay of Campeche after the weekend. If this disturbance remains organized enough, there’s a chance that it could find more favorable environmental conditions…and perhaps become a tropical depression then.
Here’s a satellite image of this area.
~~~ Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, also circled in yellow above, which is being referred to as Invest 98L…having a low chance of developing as well.
This disturbance is located near the coast of southern Texas…close to the border of Mexico.
Thunderstorm activity appears to be taking on a better shape now, although wind shear aloft is troublesome. However, the wind shear is being offset by the amply warm sea surface temperatures under this disturbance.
The computer models are showing this area low pressure bringing heavy rainfall to parts of Texas…and the northeastern Mexico region as well. As this disturbance moves inland, the chances of development will fade quickly.
Here’s the looping radar image from the Brownsville, Texas NWS office.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
Tropical Cyclone 04L (Cristobal)
There are no active tropical cyclones
1.) A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next couple of days while the system moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. However, environmental conditions could become conducive for some development when the system moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones
1.) A weak area of low pressure near the coast of South Texas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely before it moves inland over South Texas and northern Mexico today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.