Tropical Cyclone 04L (Cristobal) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 435 miles west of Bermuda, 300 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina – Category 1 Hurricane
Hurricane 04L (Cristobal) continues to gradually strengthen…passing well offshore to the northwest of Bermuda
Hurricane Cristobal’s maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph…reaching 85 mph over the next two days.
According to the NHC, some deep thunderstorm activitiy has redeveloped near the center of Cristobal during the past few hours, mainly in the western semicircle. Satellite imagery shows dry air wrapping south and east of the center, interspersed with a couple of convective bands. The initial intensity remains 80 mph, and another aircraft will be investigating the cyclone this afternoon.
There is still some potential for Cristobal to strengthen during the next day or so, before it begins extra-tropical transition, which should be complete shortly after 48 hours. Cristobal is expected to be a powerful extra-tropical cyclone by Friday night or Saturday…and then slowly weaken before being absorbed by another cyclone at the end of the period.
All of the computer model guidance is unanimous in turning Cristobal north-northeastward and then northeastward during the next 24 hours, and accelerating this tropical cyclone into the mid-latitude prevailing westerlies. A continued northeasterly motion is expected through the remainder of the cyclone’s life cycle.
Open ocean vessels should be giving this hurricane a wide berth, as dangerous conditions exist along its path.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles…the general motion will continue to be west at near 15 mph.
This area, being referred to as Invest 97L, will likely remain over the western Atlantic Ocean until Friday or so. The current path and speed of motion will likely bring this disturbance over the Lesser Antilles, and then on into the western Caribbean by Saturday. This in turn will bring increasing rains to the Caribbean Islands upon its arrival.
There’s a very low zero percent chance of this cyclone spinning-up into a tropical cyclone over the next two days. The NHC suggests that chances will increase to a slightly higher 10% over the next five days.
Finally, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, which is being referred to as Invest 98L…having a low chance of developing.
The distinguishing feature of this disturbance is the thunderstorm activity, which has increased this morning.
Some of the computer models are showing this area low pressure moving towards the far southern Texas coast, which would bring heavy rainfall to that area…and the northern Mexico region as well.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
Tropical Cyclone 04L (Cristobal)
1.) A tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is now expected to move generally westward across the Caribbean Sea with little development during the next few days. However, environmental conditions could become favorable for some development by early next week in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
There are no active tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones
1.) Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak low pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has increased during the past few hours. Some additional development is possible before the system moves inland over southern Texas and northern Mexico on Thursday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.