There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
However, there is an area of disturbed weather in the southern Caribbean being referred to as Invest 90L…which has changed little over the past 24 hours.
This tropical disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression by early next week as it remains more or less in the same general area.
The disturbance has ample moisture to work with, and imagery showed no large areas of dry air in the general area around 90L…which would limit its generation.
Wind shear of about 20 knots is marginally favorable for development. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, running near 85F degrees.
Steering currents are weak in the region, and 90L isn’t expected to move much over the next 5-days. Heavy rains over Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua are a major concern from 90L, with flooding and landslides a definite possibility.
This disturbance has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours
1.) Cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad low pressure area. This system has become a little less organized since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the low moves slowly and erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Gulf of Mexico
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