Tropical Cyclone 04L (Cristobal) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 545 miles southwest of Bermuda – Category 1 Hurricane
Hurricane 04L (Cristobal) continues to gradually strengthen, having become the 3rd hurricane of the 2014 season…as it moves out to sea
Hurricane Cristobal’s maximum sustained winds were near 75 mph, with further strengthening expected over the next two days.
According to the NHC, the center of Cristobal is partially exposed to the northwest of the deep convection. Analyses shows about 23 mph west-northwesterly wind shear over Cristobal, and dry air has wrapped into the southwestern quadrant of the circulation.
The initial intensity remains 65 knots based on data from the last NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission.
Model guidance indicates that the upper-level winds will become less hostile during the next day or so…which should allow for some intensification.
The NHC forecast shows Cristobal peaking in 36-48 hours. After that time, Cristobal will be moving over cooler waters, and into a higher wind shear environment, which should result in the system losing tropical characteristics in about 3 days. This should result in Cristobal transitioning to a powerful extra-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic late in the period.
During the next day or so Cristobal will begin moving north-northeastward around the western side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. Then the cyclone should accelerate into the mid-latitude prevailing westerlies during the remainder of the forecast period.
Cristobal continues to dump heavy rains over the Central and Southeast Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands. At this point, the only land area at risk from hurricane Cristobal is Bermuda, and the latest wind probability forecast from NHC…gives that island a 27% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph.
Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles . The general motion will continue to be west to west-northwest at near 15 mph.
The principal limiting factor today, as it was yesterday, is the dry air surrounding the area, as shown on this graphical map…especially to the north. At the same time, sea surface temperatures are amply warm to support formation, although the wind shear over this area remains in the moderately strong category.
It will likely remain over the open Atlantic Ocean until Friday or so. The current path and speed of motion will likely bring this disturbance over the Lesser Antilles by Friday, and then on towards Puerto Rico by Saturday. This in turn will bring increasing rains to the Caribbean Islands.
There’s a very low zero percent chance of this cyclone spinning-up into a tropical cyclone over the next two days. However, the NHC suggests that chances will increase to near 20% over the next five days.
Finally, there’s a new area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico, although it has a low chance of developing.
The distinguishing feature of this disturbance is the thunderstorm activity, although that has become less active.
Some of the computer models are showing a weak area of low pressure moving towards the Texas Gulf coast…which would bring rainfall.
Here’s a satellite image of this area.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
Tropical Cyclone 04L (Cristobal)
1.) A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for significant development during the next couple of days, but could become more conducive by the end of the week or this weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
There are no active tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico
There are no active tropical cyclones
1.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development while the system moves to the west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.