Tropical Cyclone 04L (Cristobal) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 715 miles southwest of Bermuda – Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm 04L (Cristobal) has been bringing heavy rains over the last several days…although will be heading out to sea soon
TS Cristobal’s maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph, and some strengthening is expected over the next two days.
According to the NHC, tropical storm Cristobal remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center fully exposed on the north side of the deep convective cloud mass. Earlier reconnaissance data indicated maximum winds of near 60 knots in the southeast quadrant. A NOAA aircraft reported a 33 knot surface wind. Aircraft fixes indicate that Cristobal is moving erratically north-northeastward or north-northeast at a very slow 3 mph.
Strong northerly wind shear has been impeding the forward motion of Cristobal for the past several hours, by keeping the deep convection displaced to the south of the center, and this is expected to continue through today. By Tuesday however, a deep trough just off the U.S. east coast is forecast to capture Cristobal and gradually lift out the cyclone to the northeast.
The NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on this developing scenario with only minor differences in forward speed. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track. The computer models indicate northerly shear of 23 knots has been affecting Cristobal. The shear is forecast to gradually subside to around 10 knots during the next 12-24 hours, during which time some slight strengthening could occur.
However, by 48-72 hours, the shear this wind forecast to decrease more significantly, allowing Cristobal to strengthen further, becoming a category 1 hurricane as the cyclone passes to the west and north of Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. The NHC is giving a near 40% chance of bringing tropical storm force winds to Bermuda.
On Days 4 and 5, Cristobal will be passing over much cooler waters and encountering strong southwesterly wind shear, as the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, which will result in extra-tropical transition by 120 hours. Owing to the slow motion of Cristobal, heavy rainfall and possible flooding will remain a threat for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos through Tuesday.
The primary concern for the Caribbean islands has been the very heavy rainfall, because Cristobal is moving so slowly. The NHC is forecasting that TS Cristobal will produce rainfall totals of 4-8 inches over the Turks and Caicos, as well as portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas through Tuesday…with isolated amounts around 12 inches possible.
The government of Bahamas has discontinued the tropical storm warning for the central Bahamas.
Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance located about 1110 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This area of thunderstorms is positioned more or less half way between the west coast of African and the Lesser Antilles Islands. The general motion will continue to be west to west-northwest at near 15 mph.
The principal limiting factor at the moment, is the dry air surrounding the area, as shown on this graphical map…especially to the north. At the same time, sea surface temperatures are amply warm to support formation, although the wind shear over this area remains in the moderately strong category.
It will likely remain over the open Atlantic Ocean until Friday or so. There’s a very low zero percent chance of this cyclone spinning up into a tropical cyclone over the next two days. However, the NHC suggests that chances will increase to near 30% over the next five days.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
Tropical Cyclone 04L (Cristobal)
1.) A tropical wave located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions do not appear to be favorable for development during the next few days, but could become more conducive by the end of the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent
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Gulf of Mexico
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